ITM Power: Analyst Optimism and Insider Purchases Counter a Stubborn Downtrend
Published on 07/19/2026 at 18:43 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The stock of hydrogen specialist ITM Power has been sliding for weeks, yet analysts are raising their price targets and the company’s own management is buying shares. The disconnect between the chart and the sentiment from the City is becoming increasingly hard to ignore.
Berenberg this week lifted its target price on the Sheffield-based electrolyser maker from 110 pence to 200 pence, almost doubling its previous estimate. Morgan Stanley has also upgraded the stock in recent days, signalling growing conviction that ITM Power will capture a meaningful slice of the green hydrogen market. Not all analysts are on board — some remain wary of execution risks and the uncertainty around when the company’s pipeline will translate into revenue — but the bulls are gaining volume.
Those upgrades come as the shares take a beating. At Friday’s close, ITM Power traded at €1.22, shedding 9.67% over the past seven trading days. The monthly decline now stands at 15.53%, dragging the stock more than 52% below the 52-week high of €2.58 reached in late May. That dramatic pullback has put the stock deep into correction territory, though the year-to-date gain of 69.18% reminds investors that the longer-term trend remains positive.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ITM Power?
Government cash underwrites the factory plan
The recent insider buying is set against a solid operational backdrop. In early July, ITM Power secured a £46.5 million grant from the UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero for the Chronos project, a next-generation electrolyser stack. That follows a £40 million capital injection in April from the state investment vehicle Great British Energy. Combined, the £86.5 million in public money is earmarked for an automated manufacturing line in Sheffield that will eventually produce up to one gigawatt of capacity per year, driving down the cost of industrial-scale green hydrogen.
Routine insider purchases, but a consistent signal
Chief executive Dennis Schulz bought 134 shares through the company’s ‘Buy As You Earn’ scheme on 15 July, paying an average of 112p per share. The outlay of roughly £150 is modest, but it marks the second time this year Schulz has added to his holding; he also bought shares in May. Director Simon Bourne participated in the same plan on the same day, also acquiring 134 shares at the same price and receiving an equal number of matching shares under the one-for-one scheme. Both executives have been regular participants in the plan for months, so the purchases lack the drama of an unsolicited open-market buy — but the consistency sends a quiet message of confidence.
Technicals point towards oversold territory
With no major corporate announcements expected in the coming week, traders are turning to the charts for direction. The 14-day relative strength index sits at 36.9, edging towards oversold levels. Annualised 30-day volatility has surged past 100%, underscoring the stock’s high-risk profile. Key moving averages offer near-term guideposts: the 50-day line at €1.65 acts as resistance overhead, while the 200-day average at €1.08 provides longer-term support. Analysts expect the next financial report around mid-September, and until then the shares may oscillate between those two levels.
The broader investment case remains unchanged: state-backed hydrogen programmes in Europe, the commercial rollout of the TRIDENT and NEPTUNE platforms, and the long-term potential of Chronos. On the flip side, competition, project financing hurdles, and underutilisation of the expanded factory all present real risks. For now, the combination of analyst upgrades, public funding, and insider buying offers a counterweight to a market that has turned decisively bearish in the short run.
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