ITM Power: Funding Secured, Factory Not Built, and the Stock Keeps Falling
Published on 07/29/2026 at 09:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The disconnect between ITM Power's improving fundamentals and its deteriorating share price is becoming hard to ignore. On Tuesday, the British electrolyser manufacturer's stock slipped another 3.3% to €1.17, extending its weekly decline to 13.5% and its monthly slide to 16.6%. The moves come despite the company finally converting a £46.5 million grant from the UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero from a conditional commitment into a formal award — a milestone that should, in theory, have provided a floor under the shares.
Instead, the stock now trades 54.2% below its May high of €2.58, a peak that now feels distant. The irony is that the company is simultaneously de-risking its most ambitious project. Alongside the government grant, state-owned Great British Energy is injecting £40 million of equity capital, giving ITM Power a combined £86.5 million war chest specifically earmarked for building out production capacity for its next-generation Chronos electrolyser stack.
The problem is that the factory line doesn't exist yet. The Chronos manufacturing process still needs to be integrated into ITM Power's existing Sheffield facilities, and the gap between securing funding and delivering serial production remains wide. That execution risk is precisely what the market is pricing in — and what is keeping the stock pinned near its 200-day moving average of €1.09, a full 25% below its 50-day average of €1.57.
Analyst Optimism Meets Market Skepticism
The sell-off is all the more striking because it coincides with a notable upgrade cycle from the sell side. Berenberg has lifted its price target on ITM Power from 110p to 200p, a near-doubling that signals growing confidence in the company's ability to execute on its Chronos roadmap and its broader pipeline expansion. Morgan Stanley has also upgraded the stock, citing increased interest in the company's role in the hydrogen economy.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ITM Power?
But the analyst community remains deeply fractured. The consensus 12-month price target across 11 analysts sits well below Berenberg's bullish call, with the range stretching from 55p to 310p — a spread that underscores just how uncertain the timing of any revenue inflection remains. The bear case is built on familiar structural concerns: persistent losses, lumpy revenue recognition, underutilised factory capacity, intensifying competition, and the perennial execution risk that has plagued long-duration hydrogen projects across the sector.
The technical picture does little to resolve the debate. The 14-day relative strength index sits at 36.9, approaching oversold territory but not yet there. The annualised 30-day volatility of 88% is a reminder that this stock can swing violently in either direction — and indeed, despite the recent rout, ITM Power is still up 62% year-to-date from its February trough. The long-term trend, measured by the 200-day moving average, remains intact, but the short-term momentum is unequivocally bearish.
The Rheinmetall Wild Card
For the bulls, the most compelling catalyst lies beyond the Chronos factory floor. The partnership with Rheinmetall on the Giga-PtX project represents a potential step-change in addressable market. Rheinmetall itself has flagged the possibility of up to 1,500 units under the programme, equivalent to roughly 37.5 gigawatts of electrolyser capacity — a figure that would dwarf ITM Power's current pipeline and fundamentally alter the company's growth trajectory.
This is not a conventional green hydrogen play. The Giga-PtX project is oriented around energy security rather than decarbonisation, which opens up a different set of government procurement dynamics and potentially more stable long-term offtake. Berenberg's upgrade was explicitly tied to this opportunity, and if ITM Power can convert even a fraction of that pipeline into binding orders, the bull case becomes significantly easier to defend.
Insider Buying: Routine, Not Revelatory
Some retail-focused commentary has highlighted the purchase of 134 shares by CEO Dennis Schulz on 15 July as a bullish insider signal. The context matters. Both Schulz and CTO Simon Bourne participate monthly in the company's "Buy as You Earn" share plan, under which employees can invest up to £150 per month, with the company matching contributions pound-for-pound. In July, each executive acquired 134 partnership shares and 134 matching shares at £1.1231 per ordinary share — a total of 268 shares per person.
ITM Power at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
This is a standing payroll deduction, not a discretionary bet on the stock. Both executives have participated every month for over a year, buying at prices ranging from £0.623 in February to £1.33 in June, irrespective of where the share price sat. The July purchase provides no new signal about management's view of the current valuation.
What Comes Next
The next meaningful catalyst will be tangible progress on the Chronos production line in Sheffield. Until the factory floor shows visible output, the bear case — centred on execution risk and ongoing cash burn — will retain its grip on the market narrative. Conversely, further contract wins tied to either Chronos or the Rheinmetall partnership could validate the bull case that underpins Berenberg's 200p target.
For now, the stock is trapped between two competing realities: a funding position that has never been stronger, and a production track record that has never been more important to prove. The market is voting with its feet, and the feet are pointing down. The next scheduled corporate update is expected later in 2026, leaving a long stretch of trading where technical momentum and macro sentiment will fill the information vacuum.
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ITM Power Stock: New Analysis - 29 July
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