JPMorgan Lifts Thyssenkrupp Target as Steel Restructuring and Naval Talks Build Momentum
Published on 07/13/2026 at 14:16 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Thyssenkrupp’s shares edged higher on Monday after JPMorgan raised its price target to €12.80 from €11.80, citing operational progress within the conglomerate as it pushes ahead with a sweeping corporate overhaul. The investment bank left its rating at “Neutral,” a stance that underscores continued caution despite the improved outlook. The stock traded at €11.66, up 1.39% from Friday’s close of €11.50, and has gained more than 20% since the start of 2026.
The move came as the group completed a key divestment and began to benefit from new European Union steel import restrictions. Thyssenkrupp Steel has formally exited the HĂĽttenwerke Krupp Mannesmann (HKM) joint venture, with contracts signed and closed on July 8. Salzgitter now operates the Duisburg site alone, leaving Thyssenkrupp with a simpler steel structure. The exit was first outlined in a February framework agreement.
That simplification arrives alongside regulatory relief. Since July 1, 2026, the EU has slashed its duty-free steel import quota to 18.3 million tonnes annually — a 47% reduction compared with 2024 levels — aiming to curb cheap Asian inflows and stabilise European spot margins. JPMorgan is believed to have factored this protection into its revised valuation. Even so, Thyssenkrupp Steel has criticised the parallel carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) as “not functional,” calling for a fundamental reform of emissions trading while continuing to invest in direct-reduction plants alongside competitors such as Salzgitter.
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Meanwhile, the naval division TKMS provided a contrasting source of momentum. Thyssenkrupp’s marine unit is in advanced talks with Canadian steelmaker Algoma Steel about a partnership to build up to 12 submarines of the 212CD class. A first meeting, brokered by Canadian politicians, took place on July 7. The entire project is estimated to be worth around €62 billion, and together with other major orders — including four frigates for the German navy — it secures capacity utilisation for TKMS well into the 2040s. Analysts view the marine business as an increasingly pivotal value driver, with standalone price targets for a separately listed naval unit ranging from €76 to €135 per share, a spread that reflects widely differing expectations.
Technically, the stock remains in a constructive but volatile phase. It trades roughly 6% above its 50-day moving average and more than 17% above the 200-day line of €9.95, though it still sits about 12% below the 52-week high of €13.24 set in October 2025. The relative strength index stands at 54.7, indicating neutral territory, while 30-day annualised volatility has climbed to 51.95%, capturing the tug-of-war between strategic wins and policy uncertainties. Over the past week the share price slipped 5.4% before Monday’s recovery.
Investors now face a decisive milestone on August 7, when an extraordinary general meeting will vote on the planned spin-off of the materials trading unit tk accelis. The outcome will shape Thyssenkrupp’s transition into a financial holding company. Between the completed HKM sale, the EU tariff shield, the TKMS negotiations, and the cautious analyst nod from JPMorgan, the share price is likely to oscillate as these forces play out — operational gains acknowledged, but a full re-rating still waiting for clearer proof of execution.
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