Kioxia Holds Its Ground as Chip Rout Deepens on Geopolitical Fears and Samsung Profit-Taking
Published on 07/08/2026 at 16:44 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
A bout of violent selling swept through Asian memory-chip stocks this week, triggered by a mix of geopolitical tension and a classic "sell the news" response to blockbuster earnings from Samsung Electronics. Kioxia, the Japanese NAND specialist, saw its shares slide by as much as 12% intraday on Tuesday before staging a partial recovery the following day — a move that contrasted sharply with the deeper losses suffered by its South Korean rivals.
The turmoil began on Tuesday after Samsung reported a staggering 20-fold surge in operating profit to 89.4 trillion won for the latest quarter. Investors responded not by buying, but by cashing in. Samsung's stock dropped around 7%, dragging the entire memory-chip sector down with it. Kioxia closed the session down 10.86%, though the intraday decline had been steeper. By Wednesday, the stock had clawed back to 77,480 yen in Tokyo, briefly touching a gain of 1.16% and outperforming the broader Nikkei 225, which slid below the 68,000-point mark amid rising energy prices.
The broader market backdrop remains fragile. An attack on a Qatari LNG tanker in the Strait of Hormuz has pushed oil prices higher — WTI crude neared $72 a barrel and Brent topped $75 — rekindling supply-chain fears across Asia. Meanwhile, reports that Apple may begin sourcing memory chips from Chinese suppliers CXMT and YMTC have added to the sector's unease, threatening the pricing power that has driven recent rallies. DeepSeek, a Chinese developer, is also reportedly building its own AI inference chips, further unsettling established manufacturers like Kioxia.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Kioxia?
Despite the noise, Kioxia's underlying business fundamentals remain solid. NAND flash contract prices have surged 57% quarter-on-quarter, and industry observers expect another 10–15% rise in the third quarter. The company's order books are fully loaded for the rest of the fiscal year, a point management is likely to emphasize when it reports first-quarter results in mid-July, shortly after major US tech companies release their earnings.
The stock's recent volatility, however, is extreme. Annualized volatility stands at 170%, and from a record high near 520 euros (roughly 85,000 yen) in late June, the shares have fallen sharply. Technical analysts note that Wednesday's recovery tested the lower Bollinger Band at around 75,300 yen, a level that may provide near-term support. Morgan Stanley has cautioned that the memory market could be approaching a "inflection point in growth momentum," raising the stakes for Kioxia's ability to decouple from a potential broader rotation away from semiconductor stocks.
For now, Kioxia has managed to avoid the worst of the sell-off. But with geopolitics, shifting supply-chain dynamics, and a possible peak in the memory cycle all looming, the next few weeks will test whether its relative resilience is built on solid ground or is simply a temporary reprieve in a turbulent market.
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