Leonardo Heads for Live-Fire Validation in Ukraine as Analysts Tout €56.8bn Backlog
Published on 07/18/2026 at 06:35 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Leonardo is entering a crucial phase where battlefield credibility and financial momentum will be tested almost simultaneously. The Italian defence and aerospace group plans to put its new “Michelangelo” air-defence system through live combat trials in Ukraine before the end of 2026, while its order book has swelled to €56.8bn — equivalent to more than two years of revenue visibility. Bernstein analysts have responded by naming Leonardo one of their top European defence picks alongside Thales and Rheinmetall, citing strong fundamentals and a clear growth runway as NATO allies ramp up spending under the “Readiness 2030” programme.
The order momentum is already tangible. In the first quarter of 2026, Leonardo’s incoming orders surged 31% to over €9bn, lifting the total backlog to that record level. A €4.6bn contract from the Global Combat Air Programme, secured via the Edgewing joint venture in which Leonardo holds a one-third stake with BAE Systems and Japan’s JAIEC, adds further weight. Closer to home, Leonardo Rheinmetall Military Vehicles booked an initial order from the Italian army for 21 tracked vehicles, valued in the mid-triple-digit million euro range.
On the share price front, the market remains cautious despite the upbeat analyst call. On Friday, Leonardo shares closed at €50.64, a gain of 2.56%, according to market data, while another report pinned the finish at €50.85, up 2.99%. Either way, the stock stands roughly 23.5% below its 52-week high of €66.24 set in March and is trading under its 50-day moving average of €51.11. The relative strength index hovers near 49, indicating a neutral stance with no clear directional bias. Over the past 30 days the shares have shed about 3%.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Leonardo?
The Michelangelo trial is far more than a technical demonstration. Defence analysts view the live-fire deployment in an active conflict zone as a critical qualification step that could give Leonardo a decisive edge in upcoming procurement competitions across NATO Europe. The system, developed within Leonardo’s electronics and air-defence division, is designed to protect against modern aerial threats, and a successful combat test would validate its performance under the harshest possible conditions.
Alongside the Ukraine push, Leonardo is building longer-term capabilities through two “Open Innovation” programmes launched on 14 July: “Discovering Future Technologies” and “Photonic Technologies”. Both target artificial intelligence, high-performance computing and photonic computing, aiming to inject external expertise into future defence and aerospace platforms. The same day, the group participated in the Aerospace Buyer-Supplier Meeting in Rome, part of an effort to strengthen a regional aerospace and defence cluster in the Lazio area and secure skilled labour for complex projects.
All eyes now turn to 30 July, when Leonardo will publish half-year results. For the first time, the figures will include a full quarter’s contribution from Iveco Defence Vehicles following its integration. The report will also offer early clarity on two pivotal questions: whether Michelangelo can prove itself in battle and how quickly the Iveco acquisition is feeding through to the top and bottom lines. Meanwhile, speculation persists about a possible partnership with Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund focused on the Aerostructures division, which is targeting profitability by 2028. The Italian state remains the largest single shareholder, with a 30.2% stake.
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