Medicare Opens the Door for Novo Nordisk, but Pricing Squeeze Threatens to Slam It Shut
Published on 06/25/2026 at 13:23 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Novo Nordisk shares have staged a swift recovery in recent days, advancing nearly 12% over the past week to €42.15. The rally was sparked by a twin set of catalysts: a South African court order blocking illegal copies of semaglutide, and UK approval for the oral Wegovy pill. Yet even after this bounce, the stock remains more than 27% below its level a year ago, and the real test is only just beginning.
From 1 July 2026, the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge Program will give millions of US seniors access to weight-loss drugs such as Wegovy for a flat $50 a month. The market has cheered the prospect of a flood of new patients, pushing the shares back above their 200-day moving average. But the euphoria may be premature. The program caps manufacturer revenue at $245 per monthly prescription and is only guaranteed through 2027, with no successor yet in sight.
The oral Wegovy pill has been the brightest spot in Novo Nordisk’s portfolio. In just over five months it has racked up more than three million prescriptions in the US, making it one of the most successful pharma launches in history. Notably, over 80% of those prescriptions are for patients new to GLP-1 therapies, meaning the pill is expanding the market rather than cannibalising sales of Ozempic or injectable Wegovy. International expansion is already under way: the UK approval paves the way for further European launches in the second half of the year.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?
Yet the top line is under severe pressure. Novo Nordisk management anticipates a decline in full-year revenue of between 5% and 13% for 2026, and the first quarter already showed an 11% drop in adjusted US sales. Lower pricing for Ozempic and Rybelsus, along with expiring patents in countries such as Brazil and China, are eating into margins. The company’s new CEO has announced 9,000 job cuts as part of a plan to save 8 billion Danish kroner by the end of 2026, raising questions about the impact on R&D.
The competitive landscape is intensifying. Eli Lilly now commands a 60% share of the US GLP-1 market, versus Novo Nordisk’s 39%, and its drugs Zepbound and Mounjaro are growing faster than Wegovy and Ozempic. Lilly launched its own oral weight-loss pill, Foundayo, in the US in April, directly challenging Wegovy’s lead. Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk’s next-generation candidate CagriSema delivered a 23% weight loss over 84 weeks in a recent internal study, lagging the 25.5% achieved by Lilly’s Zepbound. The company does have a promising early-stage asset: Zenagamtide produced nearly 15% weight loss in a Phase 2 trial, with Phase 3 set to begin in the second half of the year.
Technical indicators flash a warning as well. The relative strength index sits above 71, leaving the stock in overbought territory after its recent surge. The short-term trend is positive, but the longer-term picture remains fragile unless revenue growth can offset the relentless price erosion.
All eyes now turn to the second-quarter results, expected on 5 August 2026. That report will be the first to include a full quarter of Foundayo competition, initial European Wegovy pill sales, and the early impact of the Medicare Bridge Program. Two numbers will determine the direction: the realised net price per Wegovy unit in the US, and the prescription volumes coming through the new Medicare channel. If volume growth fails to outpace price declines, the recent rally could evaporate as quickly as it began.
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