Mercedes-Benz: Analysts Spot a Buying Opportunity as China Woes and EV Gains Pull Shares in Opposite Directions
Published on 07/08/2026 at 17:34 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The second quarter painted a deeply split picture for Mercedes-Benz, with electric vehicle sales surging by half while deliveries in China collapsed by 30%. That stark contrast has left the stock nursing a year-to-date loss of roughly 26%, but at least one major Wall Street house now argues the sell-off has gone too far.
Jefferies upgraded the shares from "Hold" to "Buy" this week, even as it trimmed its price target to €52. From the current level around €45.83, that still implies a double-digit upside. The analysts reckon the market has already priced in the known headwinds from weak Chinese luxury demand and that the group's underlying profitability in its car business should stabilise over the medium term.
China's steep slide contrasts with global resilience
Between April and June, Mercedes-Benz delivered 547,100 vehicles worldwide. The core passenger-car division shrank 8% year on year, almost entirely because of a brutal 30% plunge in China, its single most important market. Intense competition and subdued consumer sentiment there are taking a heavy toll. Outside China, however, the picture was brighter: overall sales rose 3%, with solid growth in North America and Europe. The van division also eked out a 1% gain to 94,100 units.
The EV story is the clearest bright spot. Pure battery-electric passenger-car sales reached 52,900 units, a 51% jump. Including vans, the total hit 63,000 vehicles, up 50%. Europe led the charge with an 87% leap in EV sales, meaning roughly one in eight Mercedes passenger cars now runs on battery power alone.
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Stock bounces off lows but trend remains bearish
The market's mood, however, remains cautious. The shares dipped to a low of €42.64 in late June before clawing back to around €44–€46. That modest recovery has lifted the stock from its worst levels, but it still trades about 16% below its 200-day moving average. The RSI has moved back to neutral territory, signalling an end to the acute selling pressure, but the long-term downtrend is firmly intact.
Investor sentiment is further soured by the mounting cost-cutting drive inside the company. Management is pushing through sweeping efficiency measures to protect margins against fierce competition and volatile raw-material costs. The restructuring has sparked protests at several plants, with workers openly opposing the belt-tightening.
New models and cost cuts face a critical test
Mercedes-Benz plans to roll out a wave of new models in the second half of the year. The combination of model changeovers and the ongoing savings programmes needs to start delivering financial results quickly. Without a simultaneous stabilisation of demand in its core markets – particularly China – the shares are unlikely to mount a lasting recovery.
Mercedes-Benz at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Full financial details for the second quarter will be published in July, when investors will get a clearer picture of how the sales slump is hitting the bottom line. Until then, the divergence between the electric success story and the Chinese headache will keep the stock in a tug-of-war.
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