Moncler cautious after Morgan Stanley target cut, shares in luxury sector comparison

By Anna Wagner, Analysts & Consensus desk. Reviewed prior to publication on 2026-06-23, 14:21.

Moncler (IT0004965148) sits firmly in the European luxury segment on Borsa Italiana in Milan, with its shares trading in euros alongside sector peers LVMH and Kering. Morgan Stanley has cut its price target on the stock to 57 euros from 59 euros, maintaining an equal-weight rating and taking a more cautious stance than the broader analyst community, according to an Investing.com report. Investing.com details the Morgan Stanley target cut.

What Morgan Stanley says

Morgan Stanley’s new 57 euro price target on Moncler draws on a blend of discounted cash flow and multiples-based valuation, with the broker highlighting slower growth in the United States and tourism-related risks in Europe as key constraints. The DCF component implies a value of roughly 55 euros per share, based on a weighted average cost of capital of 8.8 percent and a terminal growth rate of 2.5 percent, while the multiples approach yields about 60 euros using a next-12-month price-to-earnings ratio near 25 times, aligned with peers like LVMH, Kering, Richemont, Prada and Burberry. The Morgan Stanley note outlines the valuation mix and peer set.

The bank’s forecasts now sit about 2 percent below consensus for both 2026 and 2027, signalling a cautious but not outright negative view on Moncler’s earnings trajectory. It estimates 2026 earnings per share at 2.34 euros, below the approximately 2.40 euros market consensus, and projects group revenue of 3.25 billion euros in 2026, rising to 3.46 billion euros in 2027 and 3.66 billion euros in 2028. Earnings before interest and tax are expected to reach 951 million euros in 2026, 1.02 billion euros in 2027 and 1.09 billion euros in 2028, underscoring a still-growing but moderating profit profile relative to the most optimistic analysts.

Analyst expectations and upcoming results

Moncler’s consensus target range currently sits between roughly 54 and 70 euros per share, placing Morgan Stanley’s 57 euro level in the lower half of the spectrum and reinforcing its equal-weight stance rather than a bullish call. The broker models Moncler brand retail sales growth around 5 percent at constant exchange rates in the second quarter of 2026, with about 3 percent stemming from new selling space and 2 percent from like-for-like momentum, illustrating a measured expansion pace in a still-competitive luxury landscape. The same analyst report provides these second-quarter growth estimates.

For the Stone Island label, acquired in recent years to broaden Moncler’s portfolio, Morgan Stanley sees stronger dynamics, forecasting second-quarter retail sales growth of about 15 percent at constant exchange rates after 17 percent in the first quarter. The group is scheduled to publish its second-quarter and first-half 2026 results on July 22, a date likely to act as the next major catalyst for the shares on Borsa Italiana as investors compare reported figures with Morgan Stanley’s relatively cautious assumptions and the wider consensus. Investing.com cites July 22 as the scheduled earnings release.

The product behind the stock

Moncler generates most of its revenue from premium outerwear, particularly its down-filled jackets and coats that have become a staple in the winter wardrobes of affluent consumers in Europe, the United States and Asia. The flagship Moncler line and the sport-inspired Moncler Grenoble collection anchor the brand’s identity around technical performance and fashion appeal, while Stone Island adds a complementary streetwear and utility aesthetic aimed at younger, urban customers.

Where the shares trade today

The Moncler shares (IT0004965148) trade on Borsa Italiana in Milan under the ticker MOV; the latest available quote on Finanzen100 shows a bid price around 50.80 euros and an ask price near 50.84 euros, with the day’s low at about 50.78 euros, as of the most recent market data.

Disclaimer: This article provides informational commentary on the Moncler shares based on publicly available data and analyst reports and does not contain any investment advice or individual buy or sell recommendations.