Nebius’ AI Factory Expansion and Nvidia’s Long-Term Bet Drive Shares Higher
Published on 07/21/2026 at 19:04 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
A pair of powerful catalysts have sent Nebius shares surging over two sessions, lifting the stock to €184.48 by Tuesday’s close. The rally began Monday after Nvidia disclosed a 9.3% passive stake in the AI infrastructure specialist via a Schedule 13G filing with the SEC, then accelerated sharply on Tuesday when Northland Capital Markets slapped a $410 price target on the shares — implying more than 100% upside from the current level. The dual jolts mark a stark reversal from the volatility that had dogged the stock earlier in July.
Nvidia’s filing revealed it holds 22.26 million Class A shares of Nebius, the bulk of which — roughly 21 million — stem from a pre-funded warrant dated March 11, 2026. The warrant cannot be exercised until September 11, 2026, effectively locking Nvidia out of selling those shares for over two years. An additional 1.19 million shares were already on the books from a first-quarter position. The 13G filing, the standard form for passive investors, signals that Nvidia does not intend to take control of Nebius; instead, the two companies plan to collaborate on AI infrastructure, fleet management, and inference technology. Nvidia originally committed $2 billion in investment to the Dutch cloud provider earlier this year.
The analyst upgrade from Northland Capital Markets adds a fundamentally different layer of optimism. The $410 target is anchored in Nebius’ massive order backlog, which exceeds $40 billion according to company filings. The largest contracts include a multi-year agreement with Meta Platforms worth $27 billion and a $19.4 billion deal with Microsoft. Revenue in the most recent quarter surged 684% year-over-year, reflecting the rapid uptake of the company’s GPU-as-a-service model. Unlike traditional hyperscalers, Nebius offers specialized compute environments tailored for training and inference of large language models.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?
Fueling that growth is an ambitious European expansion strategy. Nebius is building a network of “AI Factories” across the continent — dedicated sites designed to house Blackwell chips and future GPU generations. The flagship project in Mäntsälä, Finland, has tripled capacity to 75 megawatts and is already serving as a technical template for sustainable cooling and heat recovery. Further planned campuses include a 310-megawatt site in Lappeenranta, Finland, and a 240-megawatt facility in Lille, France. To finance this buildout, Nebius secured a $775 million secured credit line from MUFG in mid-July, treating GPU clusters as collateralizable assets. The company has indicated it will seek to replicate that structure to fund its target of 3 gigawatts of global capacity by the end of 2026.
Despite the bullish narrative, caution flags remain. Insider sales over the past three months totaled $141.8 million, suggesting some profit-taking at current levels. The stock’s valuation also looks stretched: its trailing twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio stands at nearly 60, compared with a five-year median of 27.81, while the forward P/E eclipses 200 — a level that reflects exceptionally high growth expectations. The shares still trade 29.32% below their 52-week high of €261.00, reached on June 22, underscoring just how far they have fallen from that peak before this week’s rebound.
Technically, the picture has improved. The relative strength index now reads 48.6, leaving room for further momentum without entering overbought territory. Investors will be watching the upcoming second-quarter earnings report, expected later this month, for confirmation that GPU deliveries to Microsoft and Meta are on track. With a $40 billion backlog, a long-term endorsement from Nvidia, and a fresh financing model, Nebius appears to have multiple engines running — but the road back to its June high still requires sustained execution.
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