Nebius: Meta’s Cloud Ambitions Cast a Shadow Over a 684% Revenue Rocket
Published on 07/13/2026 at 22:14 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers coming out of Nebius Group are, by any measure, extraordinary. Revenue surged 684% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026 to $399 million, the adjusted EBITDA swung from a loss to a $129.5 million profit, and the contracted backlog now exceeds $50 billion. Yet the stock has tumbled nearly 30% from its 52-week high of €261.00, reached on June 22, with the latest leg of the sell-off triggered by a single announcement from a partner that is also its most valuable customer: Meta Platforms.
On Monday, Nebius shares fell 5.26% to close at €182.84, building on a decline that began in late June. The catalyst was a Bloomberg report that Meta is building a proprietary cloud division, dubbed Meta Compute, to sell off excess AI computing capacity. The news initially sent Nebius down as much as 15% in pre-market trading, alongside peers CoreWeave and IREN. Meta’s own shares surged 10% on the day and continued to rally. The fear is straightforward: Meta signed a $27 billion five-year contract with Nebius starting in 2027, and if the tech giant pivots to using its own infrastructure, demand for external providers could wane.
Insider stock sales added to the anxiety. CEO Arkadiy Volozh sold 46,627 shares at $235.45 each, netting roughly $10.98 million. CTO Danila Shtan disposed of 16,940 shares worth $3.99 million, and Chief Infrastructure Officer Andrey Korolenko parted with 33,870 shares for about $7.97 million. The company clarified that Volozh’s transaction was automatic, designed to cover tax obligations stemming from the vesting of restricted share units—not a discretionary exit. Even so, the total insider selling over the past 90 days has reached $134 million across 37 transactions, against a net insider sale figure of $4.87 million. Short interest has also climbed sharply, from 50.93 million shares (20.13% of free float) in mid-June to 61.01 million shares (28.55%) as of the latest count.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?
The sell-off has pushed the stock 7.46% below its 50-day moving average of €197.58, though it still trades 54.59% above its 200-day average of €118.27 and more than four times its 52-week low of €43.40. The 30-day annualized volatility remains above 100%, and the relative strength index sits at 43.5, in neutral territory but trending lower. For the month, Nebius has lost 8.85%, bringing the correction from the June high into double digits.
Behind the market noise, the operating story continues to accelerate beyond expectations. Nebius reported first-quarter revenue that topped analyst forecasts of $391.6 million, and its contracted backlog—backed by a total capacity of 3.5 gigawatts—includes a $17.4 billion commitment from Microsoft through 2031 alongside the Meta deal. An earlier $2 billion investment from Nvidia secures early access to new chip architectures and a target of 5 gigawatts by 2030. The company plans to expand UK infrastructure by 65 megawatts across three sites by fiscal 2027, which is expected to generate an additional $546 million in revenue. Rising rental prices for Nvidia B200 GPUs, combined with short contract durations, could push gross margins above 80%.
Analyst sentiment remains broadly bullish despite the pullback. The average price target compiled by Pluang stands at $248, with 59% of Robinhood analysts rating the stock a buy, 35% a hold, and only 6% a sell. More specific targets from major banks range from Bank of America’s $280 to DA Davidson’s $250, while BNP Paribas initiated coverage with a neutral rating and a $255 target. SemiAnalysis, a research firm, argues that fears of Meta cannibalizing the neocloud market are overblown, noting that Meta’s data-center and chip procurement is likely accelerating rather than slowing.
With the next quarterly report expected at the end of July, investors will be watching for signs that the Meta partnership remains intact despite the growing competitive tension. For now, Nebius finds itself caught between a blue-chip growth trajectory and a market that is pricing in the worst-case scenario—a tension that the stock’s triple-digit volatility makes almost impossible to ignore.
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Nebius Stock: New Analysis - 13 July
Fresh Nebius information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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