Nebius Rides NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin Wave as $25 Billion Infrastructure Bet Takes Shape
Published on 07/01/2026 at 11:41 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The intersection of chip architecture and cloud computing has rarely been more visible than in Nebius’s recent share-price action. On 1 July, the stock surged 5.75% intraday after reports that NVIDIA had begun shipping its next-generation Vera Rubin platform — a development that directly benefits Nebius thanks to a $2 billion investment from the chip giant in March that guarantees early access to the new Blackwell and Vera Rubin families.
At €241.05, the stock now sits roughly 7.6% below its 52-week high of €261.00 set on 22 June. For the year, shares have more than tripled, gaining over 215%, while the one-year return stands at an eye-popping 468%. The technical backdrop remains stretched: the current price is more than double the 200-day moving average of €115.04 in the primary report’s data, or 111% above the €114.30 level cited in the secondary source — a gap that underscores how quickly the market has repriced the company.
Nebius’s financials give investors reason to pay attention to the story behind those numbers. In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, total revenue hit $399 million, a 684% year-over-year jump. The AI cloud segment, the group’s growth engine, surged 841% to $389.7 million. For the full year, management has guided for revenue between $3.0 billion and $3.4 billion, and the longer-term target for recurring revenue by year-end stands at $7 billion to $9 billion. That ambition rests on a massive order backlog that includes a multi-billion-dollar, five-year contract with Meta Platforms.
To translate that pipeline into capacity, Nebius is embarking on an unprecedented capital-spending spree. It plans to invest between $20 billion and $25 billion in fiscal 2026, building out new data centres and deploying the latest NVIDIA hardware. Already announced is a ÂŁ1.7 billion commitment to expand AI cloud infrastructure in the United Kingdom. The company aims to have more than four gigawatts of contracted power capacity worldwide by the end of the year. But much of that is still under construction: a 310-megawatt facility in Finland is among the projects that could face delays, which would put the revenue guidance at risk.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?
Operationally, the company is counting on maintaining an adjusted EBITDA margin of roughly 40% while absorbing the heavy capital outlay. That balancing act is the central challenge for 2026. To support the growth, Nebius has partnered with storage specialist Weka to eliminate memory-wall bottlenecks that throttle AI training and inference. And it already counts Meta and Microsoft as clients, alongside NVIDIA’s strategic equity stake.
The valuation has clearly been rerated, but some metrics suggest the rally has room to run. The relative strength index stands at 60.7, well short of the 70 level that typically signals overbought conditions. Bank of America has lifted its price target from $240 to $280, citing both the rapid growth and Nebius’s inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 at the end of June. The Nasdaq itself had its best quarter since 2020 during the three months to June, rising 21.4%, which provided a tailwind for the entire tech sector.
Yet the risks are as large as the ambition. The stock’s 30-day annualised volatility is nearly 100%, making it acutely sensitive to shifts in tech sentiment. Construction delays — whether in Finland, the UK, or elsewhere — could derail the timetable for bringing new clusters online. Any shortfall against the $3.0–3.4 billion revenue forecast would likely trigger a sharp compression of premium multiples, especially with rival neocloud providers circling. The first technical support sits at the 50-day moving average of €186.83, a nearly 30% discount from current levels.
Nebius at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The next major catalyst is due in the second half of 2026, when Nebius plans to launch its first Blackwell Ultra instances in its newest facilities. A sustained break above the 52-week high of €261.00 would signal the start of a new upward leg. Until then, every step of the infrastructure buildout will be scrutinised by a market that has already priced in a great deal of success.
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Nebius Stock: New Analysis - 1 July
Fresh Nebius information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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