Nebius Shares Dive 15% as Meta's Cloud Ambitions Threaten a $12 Billion Guarantee
Published on 07/01/2026 at 22:36 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Nebius suffered its worst single-day drubbing in months on Wednesday, with shares collapsing 15.48% to €204.50 after the company’s largest customer unveiled plans to become a direct rival. The sell-off ripped through the specialist AI cloud sector, wiping out nearly a sixth of Nebius’s market value in a single session.
The trigger was Meta Platforms’ announcement of “Meta Compute”, an internal initiative to monetise surplus AI compute capacity by selling it to third-party developers. Until now, Meta was Nebius’s most important client; the two companies signed a sprawling infrastructure contract in March worth up to $27 billion. Of that total, a hefty $12 billion slice was guaranteed to flow from 2027 onwards. The prospect of Meta flooding the market with its own cheap computing power has thrown that cornerstone deal into doubt and raised existential questions for the entire specialist cloud layer.
The shock comes at a time when global regulators are fretting about the financial stability of the AI build-out. The Bank for International Settlements last week warned that the industry’s runaway capital expenditure echoes the conditions that preceded the 2008 credit crisis. The world’s five largest hyperscalers are set to pump over $1 trillion into data centres by 2026, and their debt-fuelled commitments are growing far faster than free cash flow. The International Monetary Fund echoed that unease, cautioning that the rapid obsolescence of AI hardware makes long-term borrowing particularly dangerous — and that a strategic pivot by a single Big Tech player can instantly destabilise the entire supply chain.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?
Against that brutal backdrop, Nebius is not standing still. First-quarter revenue surged 684% to $399 million, and management has ratcheted up the 2026 capital expenditure budget to as much as $25 billion. The company is constructing massive AI data centres in Missouri and Finland, aiming to bring four gigawatts of capacity online by the end of this year. On the technology front, Nebius recently unveiled Aether 3.6, an AI cloud platform that includes voice-activated infrastructure management and enhanced security features — a bid to stay ahead of the pack.
Yet the market’s mood has soured sharply. Despite a year-to-date gain of 167% and a near-fivefold rise over the past twelve months, the stock has lost more than 10% in the last seven sessions alone. It is now well off its 52-week high of €261.00. The next major chart test sits at the 50-day moving average around €188. If that level fails to hold, technicians see the next floor at €142.74.
Some institutional investors are already heading for the exit. RFG Advisory, an investment firm, shed roughly 93% of its Nebius holding in the latest quarter. Insider selling, meanwhile, has raised eyebrows, but the company says recent transactions by chief executive Arkadiy Volozh were solely to cover tax liabilities.
The AI infrastructure gold rush is far from over, but the rules of the game are being rewritten in real time. Specialist providers like Nebius must now fend off the very hyperscalers that were once their lifeblood. The near-term narrative hinges on whether the €188 support level can hold — or whether the rout has further to run.
Ad
Nebius Stock: New Analysis - 1 July
Fresh Nebius information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
Disclaimer regarding our articles: No investment advice, no buy or sell recommendation. Information on prices, companies, and markets is provided without guarantee; changes are possible at any time. Stock market transactions can lead to substantial losses. Our articles are created and reviewed in whole or in part automatically with the support of AI.
