Nel ASA: Orders Surge 224% While Tariffs, Legal Costs, and a CEO Exit Cloud the Outlook
Published on 07/26/2026 at 22:23 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Nel ASA finds itself navigating a deeply contradictory moment. The Norwegian hydrogen specialist reported a dramatic 224% jump in order intake during the second quarter of 2026, reaching 230 million Norwegian kroner — a sharp reversal from the first quarter's slump. Yet the stock closed Friday at €0.1968, down 2.09% on the day, as a trio of headwinds overshadowed the operational bright spot.
The company's total order backlog stood at 1.213 billion kroner at the end of June, up 9% from the prior quarter. A cash position of roughly 1.328 billion kroner provides a cushion for ongoing industrialization efforts at the Herøya facility in Norway. But beneath those headline figures, the quarter tells a more complicated story.
Tariffs and a Costly Legal Settlement Bite
On July 24, Washington imposed new import tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on green technologies, including electrolyzers — a direct hit to Nel's cost structure in North America, where it currently operates as a pure technology licensor without broad local manufacturing across all product lines.
Compounding the margin pressure, Nel reached a settlement with Iwatani Corporation of America in a long-running dispute over fueling stations in California. The agreement cost roughly 70 million kroner, or about $7.5 million. Combined with other charges, the EBITDA loss for the quarter came in at 155 million kroner. Revenue from customer contracts fell 12% year-over-year to 153 million kroner, down from 174 million in the same period of 2025.
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A Leadership Vacuum at a Critical Juncture
CEO HĂĄkon Volldal announced his departure in June to lead packaging group Elopak. He is expected to remain for up to six months, likely into early 2027, while the board searches for a successor. The timing is far from ideal. Nel is pushing to scale production capacity to 1 gigawatt and continues to evaluate its major Michigan project, which has already secured roughly $125 million in government support.
On the technology front, the company is marketing its new pressurized alkaline platform, the PA-Series, which launched in May. Nel claims total costs for a 25-megawatt system come in under $1,450 per kilowatt — less than half the industry standard of over $3,000 per kilowatt.
Technical Indicators Point Both Ways
The stock now trades about 20% below its 50-day moving average of €0.2463 and roughly 8.34% under its 200-day average of €0.2147. The 14-day relative strength index sits at 36.5, approaching the oversold threshold of 30 — a level that has historically preceded consolidation or a short-term technical bounce. The 52-week low of €0.1731 remains a key support level, while the 200-day average stands as the next resistance.
Brussels Offers a Policy Tailwind
On July 22, the European Commission launched a new call for interest under the EU Hydrogen Mechanism, targeting transmission system operators and hydrogen network operators to gauge market appetite for infrastructure projects such as pipelines and storage facilities. The initiative is part of a broader 2026 revision of the EU's hydrogen strategy, which aims to reprioritize decarbonization in hard-to-electrify industries like steelmaking.
For pure-play electrolyzer makers like Nel, infrastructure progress is critical — without pipelines and storage, large-scale green hydrogen projects remain difficult to finance, and such projects have been delayed across the sector. A July 24 industry report described the transition from blueprints to reality as a long and uncertain road, though programs like the European Hydrogen Bank and Germany's climate protection contracts continue to provide support.
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Analyst Views and the Week Ahead
Analysts at Berenberg and Citi reaffirmed their "Hold" and "Neutral" ratings respectively, with price targets of 2.30 to 2.40 Norwegian kroner — roughly €0.20, barely above the current share price. The company's next quarterly results are due on October 21.
With an annualized 30-day volatility of nearly 42%, Nel remains a stock prone to sharp swings, sensitive to regulatory decisions in Brussels and project announcements in both Europe and North America. The central question for the coming week: Can the robust order book offset the margin pressure from US tariffs, and will the unresolved leadership question continue to weigh on investor confidence?
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