Nel ASA: Record Orders Can't Mask Analyst Skepticism and Leadership Gap
Published on 07/22/2026 at 15:52 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers coming out of Nel ASA's second-quarter report tell two very different stories. On one side, a 224% surge in order intake to 230 million Norwegian kroner. On the other, a net loss of 189 million kroner and not a single buy recommendation from the 13 analysts covering the stock. The Norwegian hydrogen specialist's shares now trade at around NOK 2.00 (€0.20), having shed 11% over the past month.
The divergence between operational momentum and market sentiment has rarely been starker. Six analysts rate the stock a "hold" while seven recommend selling outright. Berenberg and Citi have set price targets of NOK 2.30 and NOK 2.40 respectively, suggesting limited upside even from current depressed levels. Both institutions point to the widening gap between Nel's valuation and its path to sustainable profitability.
A closer look at the quarterly results reveals why analysts remain cautious. Revenue from customer contracts fell 12% year-on-year to 153 million kroner, while total revenue dropped to 182 million kroner from 215 million in the same period last year. The headline EBITDA loss of 155 million kroner was heavily distorted by a one-time charge: a 70 million kroner settlement with Iwatani Corporation of America. Strip that out, and underlying EBITDA would have landed at roughly 85 million kroner — nearly flat with the 86 million kroner loss recorded a year earlier.
The net loss of 189 million kroner, while wider than some had hoped, doesn't tell the full story either. Nel ended the quarter with 1.328 billion kroner in cash and equivalents, providing ample runway to fund operations and technology development without tapping capital markets. The company's order backlog stood at 1.213 billion kroner, offering visibility into future revenue — assuming those orders convert.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
That conversion question is central to the investment case. Nel is in the midst of a platform transition, rolling out a new generation of pressurized alkaline electrolysers that management claims could slash production costs by up to 60%. The PEM electrolyser business, meanwhile, contributed 96% of new orders in the quarter, highlighting the uneven pace of the transition. Analysts warn that the shift from old to new technology is creating a temporary gap in the order cycle, making near-term revenue visibility murky.
Adding to the uncertainty, CEO Håkon Volldal announced his resignation in mid-June. He remains in place during a six-month notice period and will assist in the search for a successor, but the leadership vacuum introduces an additional layer of risk at a critical juncture. The company is essentially navigating a technology transition and a CEO transition simultaneously — a combination that rarely inspires analyst confidence.
Technically, the stock shows signs of exhaustion rather than a clear reversal. The 14-day relative strength index hovers around 37.6, teetering on the edge of oversold territory without yet flashing a definitive buy signal. The share price remains 45% below its 52-week high of NOK 3.66 (€0.3655) set on May 25. A modest recovery in recent sessions has brought the stock closer to its 200-day moving average of NOK 2.15 (€0.2150), but year-to-date, Nel still trades 6.2% in the red.
Nel ASA at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
For investors, the coming months will test whether the new electrolyser platform can fill the order pipeline before a new CEO takes the helm. Until then, the 1.213 billion kroner backlog remains the single most important metric — the clearest gauge of whether operational recovery will eventually translate into the financial results that analysts are waiting to see.
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