Nel ASA’s May Platform Launch Offers a Glimmer of Hope Amidst a Bleak Order Book

Nel ASA is pinning its turnaround hopes on a technology debut next week, as the Norwegian hydrogen company’s first-quarter results laid bare a widening gap between operational improvements and a deteriorating order pipeline. The May 6 commercial launch of its “Next Generation Pressurized Alkaline” electrolyser system is being positioned as the catalyst that could finally reignite demand, but the numbers from the opening months of 2026 suggest the road ahead remains steep.

The Q1 figures painted a picture of modest progress offset by a glaring weakness. Customer revenues came in at 148 million Norwegian kroner, a five percent decline from the same period last year. The EBITDA loss narrowed to 100 million kroner, a 15 million kroner improvement year-on-year, driven largely by the alkaline electrolyser division, which saw revenues climb six percent and segment EBITDA strengthen by 35 million kroner. Nel ended the quarter with roughly 1.4 billion kroner in cash, a buffer the company deems sufficient to fund its ongoing strategic transformation.

Yet the headline that caught the market’s attention was the collapse in order intake. New orders plunged 73 percent year-on-year to just 85 million kroner, leaving the total backlog at 1.1 billion kroner — a 24 percent drop from the start of the year. The contrast with the final quarter of 2025, when a massive PEM contract drove a 364 percent surge in order intake to 686 million kroner, could hardly be starker. That momentum has now evaporated entirely.

The market’s reaction was surprisingly muted. Nel shares edged up nearly three percent on Thursday to 0.21 euros, extending a recovery of about 15 percent from the March low. The stock remains well below its 52-week high of 0.25 euros, and with annualized volatility running at 60 percent, investors are clearly waiting for more concrete signals before committing further.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?

CEO Håkon Volldal is betting that technology can bridge the gap. The pressurized alkaline platform slated for launch on May 6 promises what he calls a “quantum leap” for the company, with production costs slashed by up to 60 percent and a drastically reduced footprint. Nel is already in advanced discussions with multiple potential customers, and the Herøya facility in Norway is being readied for up to one gigawatt of production capacity, backed by EU subsidies of as much as 135 million euros.

A small but telling data point emerged the day after the Q1 release: Nel Hydrogen US received a purchase order for PEM electrolyser equipment worth approximately seven million US dollars, with delivery scheduled for the first half of 2027. It is a modest win, but one that suggests the PEM division, which lost ground in the quarter, may still have some commercial traction.

On the governance front, Nel’s annual general meeting in April approved a significant overhaul of executive compensation. The old stock option program, which carried no performance conditions, has been replaced with a performance share unit scheme tied to specific success criteria and graded vesting. Under the new rules, the CEO can receive PSUs worth up to 50 percent of his base salary, while other senior executives are capped at 30 percent.

Nel ASA at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

The real test will come on July 15, when Nel publishes its half-year results. By then, the market will have a clearer view of whether the May 6 platform launch has translated into actual orders and deliveries. For now, the company is walking a tightrope between technological promise and commercial reality, with a shrinking order book that leaves little room for error.

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