Nemetschek’s 57% Slide Masks a 30% EBITDA Jump — Now the Market Awaits July’s Reality Check
Published on 06/28/2026 at 03:53 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
A bizarre disconnect is playing out at Nemetschek. The German construction-software group just posted its best quarterly growth in years, with constant-currency revenues up 17% to €313.1 million in the first three months of 2026. EBITDA climbed by nearly a third, and more than 92% of sales now come from recurring sources — a figure that rises to 35% growth when isolating SaaS and subscription revenue alone.
Yet the shares ended last week at €52.60, barely a whisker above the fresh 52-week low of €50.45. Since January, the stock has dropped roughly 42%. Over twelve months the loss is closer to 57%.
The culprit is not operational weakness; it is fear of what comes next. Investors increasingly question whether traditional software vendors like Nemetschek can sustain their growth trajectories in an era of rapidly advancing artificial intelligence. The worry: generic AI models could eventually render the company’s specialised building-lifecycle products redundant.
Analyst opinions diverge by €60
That uncertainty has produced a remarkable schism among the banks covering the stock. After nine analyst assessments, the average price target stands at roughly €93 — almost 80% above the current price. But the individual views could hardly be more polarised.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nemetschek?
UBS downgraded Nemetschek to “Sell” while cutting its target to €56, arguing that faster AI systems are displacing classic software vendors. The Swiss bank contends that any attempt to counter that trend requires heavy investment in AI, which in turn eats into near-term growth and margins.
On the other side, Berenberg maintains a “Buy” rating with a €115 price target. Analyst Nay Soe Naing noted drily that stable growth alone no longer attracts buyers — investors are highly selective and shun companies not perceived as clear AI winners. The LBBW, meanwhile, pegs its fair-value estimate at €91, sitting between the two extremes.
A €2.4 billion bet on infrastructure
Nemetschek’s management is trying to answer the sceptics with action. The acquisition of US civil-engineering software specialist HCSS is moving towards completion — the largest purchase in the company’s history. Nemetschek will take 72% of the shares, with private-equity firm Thoma Bravo holding the remaining 28%. HCSS generated roughly $215 million in revenue in 2025. The deal is expected to close in the second half of 2026, adding about €450 million to net debt.
In mid-June, the company also invested in French data-exchange specialist Dawex, building the technical foundations for secure data-sharing platforms that could underpin agentic AI workflows in construction. The size of that investment was not disclosed.
CEO Yves Padrines dismisses the displacement narrative as overblown. He argues that decades of domain expertise, a vast dataset covering the entire building lifecycle, and tight customer relationships cannot be replicated by general-purpose AI. Nemetschek already uses AI internally, he says, and layers proprietary functionality on top for the built environment.
Nemetschek at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The next test: July 30
Without fresh news, the stock will remain at the mercy of broader sentiment towards the software sector in the coming days. At 26 times consensus 2026 earnings, the valuation is low by Nemetschek’s historical standards.
A critical juncture arrives on 30 July, when the company publishes its half-year report. That will be the first opportunity for management to incorporate the HCSS integration into its outlook. If the group reaffirms its full-year targets — revenue growth of 14% to 15% and an EBITDA margin of 32% to 33% — it could provide the first concrete catalyst for a turnaround.
In the meantime, chart watchers are eyeing the €50 support level. A decisive break below that mark would open the door to further selling.
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