NFI Group (New Flyer) stock (CA63541B1013): Q1 2026 results and analyst target cut in focus

NFI Group (New Flyer) shares are in the spotlight after the bus and coach manufacturer reported its first?quarter 2026 results and Scotiabank cut its earnings forecast and target price for the stock. The company highlighted year?over?year improvements in gross profit, adjusted EBITDA and net earnings, alongside a closing backlog of about $13.0 billion and a reaffirmation of its 2026 guidance, according to a press release distributed via GlobeNewswire and summarized by Markets Insider on May 8, 2026.

At the same time, Scotiabank reduced its fiscal?year 2026 earnings?per?share estimate for NFI Group to C$1.19 from C$1.24, while maintaining a “Sector Outperform” rating and a C$24.50 target price, as reported by MarketBeat on May 5, 2026. The bank also issued a FY2027 EPS forecast of C$1.44, underscoring expectations for continued earnings growth despite the downward revision for the current year.

As of: 08.05.2026

By the editorial team – specialized in equity coverage.

NFI Group (New Flyer): core business model

NFI Group, commonly known through its New Flyer brand, is a leading manufacturer of transit buses and coaches in North America and the United Kingdom, with a growing footprint in other international markets. The company designs, engineers and produces a wide range of buses, including diesel, natural gas, hybrid and battery?electric models, serving public transit agencies, school districts and private operators.

Beyond new?vehicle sales, NFI Group generates recurring revenue through its aftermarket parts and service network, which supplies components, maintenance and repair solutions for its own fleets and third?party vehicles. This service and parts segment helps smooth earnings volatility and provides a more predictable cash?flow stream alongside cyclical new?bus orders.

Main revenue and product drivers for NFI Group (New Flyer)

For NFI Group, the primary revenue drivers are large?scale bus orders from public transit authorities and regional transportation agencies, often tied to multi?year procurement programs and federal or provincial funding initiatives. Recent examples include a firm order for 41 Enviro500 double?deck buses from BC Transit in British Columbia, which was added to the company’s firm backlog in the first quarter of 2026, according to a GlobeNewswire release cited by Greenstock News on May 8, 2026.

Another key driver is the transition to zero?emission and low?carbon vehicles, where NFI Group’s electric and alternative?fuel bus platforms are increasingly central to its growth strategy. The company’s ability to secure contracts for battery?electric and hydrogen?fuel?cell buses under government?backed clean?transport programs supports both near?term order intake and longer?term backlog visibility.

Conclusion

NFI Group’s first?quarter 2026 results show improving profitability and a robust $13.0 billion backlog, which supports management’s reaffirmed 2026 guidance and underpins the company’s growth narrative in the bus and coach sector. At the same time, Scotiabank’s downward revision of its FY2026 EPS forecast and target price reflects a more cautious near?term outlook, even as the bank maintains a positive rating and projects higher earnings in FY2027.

For US investors, NFI Group offers exposure to North American public transit modernization and the shift toward electric and low?emission buses, with liquidity via the OTC market. However, the stock’s performance will remain sensitive to funding cycles, procurement timing and execution risks in large?scale vehicle programs, factors that warrant careful consideration alongside any investment decision.

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment advice. Stocks are volatile financial instruments.