Nokia's Earnings Countdown: Analyst Duel, Oversold Bounce, and the Ericsson Shadow
Published on 07/21/2026 at 11:01 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Nokia’s shares snapped a five-day losing streak on Tuesday, climbing 2.59% to €9.12, but the relief is fragile. The stock has shed 40.61% since hitting a 52-week high of €14.97 on June 3, and the last seven trading sessions alone carved off 13.4% of market value. With second-quarter results due on July 23, the market is torn between competing analyst narratives and a technical setup that signals deep oversold conditions.
The recent selloff has been brutal. Over the past 30 days, Nokia lost nearly a third of its worth, and the stock now trades roughly a quarter below its 50-day moving average of €11.86. The 14-day relative strength index has recovered slightly to 34.4 points from Monday’s 31.4, still well into oversold territory—a zone that often precedes short-term stabilization but does little to address fundamental doubts.
Two bank calls published last week capture the stark disagreement over Nokia’s valuation. DNB Carnegie downgraded the stock to “Sell” on Thursday, slashing its price target to €8.40, arguing the equity had run too far too fast after the spring’s AI-driven rally. On the same day, SEB upgraded to “Buy” with a target of €12, betting on a surge in order momentum. SEB forecasts quarterly order intake of €1.2 billion in the AI and cloud segment and raised its earnings-per-share estimates for 2026 to 2028 by 2% to 8%, projecting annual profit growth of 16% through 2028.
Among the broader analyst community, the average of 23 ratings lands at “Outperform” with a target of €10.81—a roughly 10% premium to the stock’s level before DNB’s downgrade. That middle ground hasn’t prevented the share from lurching lower.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nokia?
A key catalyst for the rout came not from Nokia itself but from Swedish rival Ericsson. Its second-quarter revenue slipped 6% to SEK 52.7 billion, though operating profit of SEK 6.52 billion edged past expectations. More consequential was a comment from Ericsson’s CFO, relayed by Reuters, that the entire AI infrastructure buildout is pressuring the industry—“including us.” That remark deepened investor anxiety that AI-related gains cannot offset persistent weakness in conventional telecom infrastructure spending.
Nokia’s Q1 performance had raised hopes: comparable gross margin jumped 320 basis points to 45.5%, and comparable operating profit surged 54% to €281 million. Management said the company was tracking “slightly above the midpoint” of its full-year earnings guidance of €2.0 billion to €2.5 billion. But the market is now demanding evidence that the second quarter can sustain that momentum. Analysts expect revenue of $5.59 billion and EPS of $0.07.
The seasonal pattern adds pressure. The projected Q2 profit represents about 16% of the full-year consensus—the upper end of Nokia’s historical range of 12% to 16%. Any shortfall would force the company to deliver a disproportionately strong second half to meet its targets. Currency tailwinds from the euro-dollar rate, meanwhile, are expected to be negligible, leaving operating performance to do the heavy lifting.
Nokia at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The optical-networks segment will face particular scrutiny. Investors want proof that AI-driven demand can offset the cyclical downturn in the core telecom business—the same narrative that propelled the stock 63% higher year-to-date and more than doubled it over twelve months. The past week’s 11% slide shows how quickly that story has soured.
Tuesday’s bounce may prove to be nothing more than a technical rebound within a deeper correction. The earnings report on July 23—followed by an analyst webcast at 15:00 Finnish time—will determine whether the AI-network thesis holds substance or whether the market’s skepticism is justified. Pricing, product mix, and margins are the metrics that will settle the debate.
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Nokia Stock: New Analysis - 21 July
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