Nokia’s Q2 Earnings Arrive With a $1 Billion Nvidia Bet Hanging in the Balance
Published on 07/23/2026 at 07:42 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Helsinki-based Nokia releases its second-quarter results today, and the stakes could hardly be higher. The stock has shed nearly a quarter of its value over the past month, yet the underlying business is pointing in a very different direction — buoyed by a freshly deepened partnership with Nvidia and accelerating demand for AI-optimised network gear.
Shares closed at €9.08 on Wednesday, down 3.32% on the session, leaving the equity roughly 39% below the 52-week high of €14.97 touched in early June. The 14-day relative strength index of 35.6 is edging into territory that some chart watchers consider oversold, suggesting today’s numbers could determine whether the next leg is a relief rally or a deeper retrenchment.
The Nvidia Factor
The most eye-catching development in recent months came in May, when Nvidia invested $1 billion in Nokia as part of a strategic tie-up centred on AI-RAN technology — a platform designed to process AI workloads directly inside mobile networks. Mid-July brought the launch of what Nokia bills as the industry’s first commercial AI-powered radio access network, with the company targeting a more than 100% improvement in spectral efficiency by 2028.
That partnership sits at the heart of the bull case. In the first quarter, Nokia’s AI and cloud revenue surged 49% year-on-year, backed by a book-to-bill ratio of 3x — meaning orders are far outstripping invoicing. The order backlog in that segment alone stood at €1 billion. The optical networks division, which supplies the high-speed connectivity that cloud providers need for data centre interconnects, grew 20% over the same period.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nokia?
What the Market Wants to See
Consensus forecasts point to quarterly revenue of roughly €4.84 billion, a 6.3% increase from the €4.55 billion reported a year earlier. Earnings per share are expected to more than double to €0.054 from €0.020. But the headline numbers are only part of the story.
Investors will be watching three metrics closely. First, the gross margin: after a 320-basis-point jump to 45.5% in Q1, the question is whether that level is sustainable. Second, the optical networks trajectory — double-digit growth is the baseline, but any acceleration would reinforce the AI narrative. Third, any signs of stabilisation in the mobile networks business, where global telecom capital expenditure remains uneven.
Nokia has already raised its full-year guidance for the network infrastructure division, now forecasting growth of 12% to 14% in 2026. That upgrade came after the first-quarter beat and reflects the shift toward higher-margin product lines.
Valuation and Analyst Views
The stock trades at roughly 29 times 2026 earnings, a multiple that leaves little room for disappointment. JPMorgan raised its price target to $21 from $14 in June, maintaining an overweight rating. But caution is creeping in elsewhere: Ericsson recently warned that surging AI demand is pushing up prices for memory chips and processors, a cost headwind that could squeeze margins across the sector.
Nokia at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The disconnect between Nokia’s operational momentum and its recent share price performance is striking. Over the past 12 months, the stock is still up 135.72%, and year-to-date gains stand at 62.43%. The monthly decline of 24.52% looks more like profit-taking and pre-earnings positioning than a fundamental breakdown — but today’s report will test whether the AI story can withstand the scrutiny of the spreadsheet.
Results are due around 8:00 am CET. The market will be looking for confirmation that the Nvidia partnership is translating into real revenue acceleration, not just order-book optics.
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Nokia Stock: New Analysis - 23 July
Fresh Nokia information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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