Nokia’s Q2 Report: The Moment the AI Story Meets the Spreadsheet
Published on 07/23/2026 at 06:12 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Nokia investors are bracing for what could be a defining session on Thursday. The Finnish network equipment maker releases its second-quarter results before the Helsinki open, and the stakes have rarely felt higher — not just for the numbers themselves, but for whether the company’s ambitious AI pivot can survive a brutal month of profit-taking.
The stock closed at €9.08 on Wednesday, shedding 3.32 percent in a single session. That extends a painful 30-day slide that has wiped nearly a quarter of the share price, leaving the equity 39 percent below the 52-week high of €14.97 reached on June 3. The 14-day relative strength index now sits at 35.6, a level many chart watchers consider oversold territory. The stock is also trading 23 percent below its 50-day moving average of €11.79.
Yet the year-to-date picture tells a different story: Nokia is still up 62.43 percent, a reminder of how far the shares had run before the correction set in.
What the Street Expects
Analyst consensus points to quarterly revenue of roughly €4.84 billion, a 6.3 percent increase from the €4.55 billion reported a year earlier. Earnings per share are forecast at €0.054, more than double the €0.020 in the prior-year period. Some estimates also project an adjusted gross margin of 44.6 percent and a non-IFRS net profit of around €323 million, representing a 37 percent jump.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nokia?
The market is pricing in a clean execution quarter. The question is whether Nokia can deliver — and whether the stock’s recent slide has reset expectations low enough for a positive surprise.
The Nvidia Backing That Changed the Narrative
The most significant development since the first-quarter report came in May, when Nvidia invested $1 billion in Nokia as part of a deepened partnership. The collaboration centers on AI-RAN technology, which enables AI workloads to be processed directly within mobile networks. In mid-July, Nokia unveiled what it called the industry’s first commercial AI-powered radio access network platform, claiming it could more than double spectral efficiency by 2028.
That deal turbocharged the AI narrative that had already pushed the stock to its June peak. But the subsequent sell-off — driven by a broad correction in AI hardware plays and profit-taking — erased those gains entirely by July 20, leaving the share price exactly where it stood before the first-quarter report.
Where the Growth Must Show Up
Optical networks, fueled by cloud providers’ insatiable demand for data-center connectivity, remain the headline growth driver. The segment delivered a 49 percent revenue surge in the first quarter, and investors want to see whether that momentum is accelerating or plateauing.
But the real test lies in IP Networks, which grew only 3 percent in Q1. Management has promised a pickup in the second quarter and for the full year. This division is critical because it opens Nokia’s AI story to data centers, gateways, routing and network automation — areas that determine whether the company’s AI thesis extends beyond optical hardware. If growth here remains sluggish, a key pillar of the narrative weakens.
Segment-level expectations are specific:
- Network Infrastructure: €2.04 billion expected, up roughly 12 percent from an adjusted prior-year base of €1.83 billion.
- Mobile Infrastructure: Approximately €2.59 billion expected, a gain of about 2 percent.
The book-to-bill ratio in the AI and cloud segment will also draw close scrutiny. It stood at a remarkable 3x in the first quarter, meaning orders far exceeded billings — a forward indicator that can either confirm or undermine the growth story.
Nokia at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Margins, Costs and the Ericsson Warning
Profitability is under the microscope. Nokia’s own guidance called for the second quarter to deliver 16 percent of the full-year profit target, at the top end of the seasonal range of 12 to 16 percent. Missing that mark would push more earnings weight into the second half, raising execution risk.
Cost pressures are also mounting. Ericsson, in its own quarterly report last week, flagged industry-wide headwinds from rising component costs tied to the global AI buildout. CFO Lars Sandström told Reuters that the entire AI expansion is putting “significant pressure” on the sector, including Ericsson. Nokia’s management will likely face questions on Thursday about whether similar dynamics are affecting its own margin assumptions.
A Disconnect That Demands Resolution
The gap between Nokia’s operational trajectory and its stock price is striking. The business is expected to post accelerating revenue, expanding margins and a strategic partnership with the most influential name in AI. Yet the shares have given back nearly all of their post-Q1 gains.
Thursday’s report — and the management commentary that follows during the analyst call at 3 p.m. Finnish time — will determine whether that disconnect represents a buying opportunity or a warning that the market’s enthusiasm had run ahead of reality. For a stock that has already been through one full round-trip this year, the answer cannot come soon enough.
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