Nokia Shares Surge 6% Ahead of Q2 Report as AI-Driven Rally Faces Earnings Reality Check
Published on 07/22/2026 at 12:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Nokia’s stock staged a sharp rebound on Tuesday, climbing more than 6% to close at €9.41, as investors piled back into the Finnish telecom equipment maker just one day before its second-quarter earnings release. The move marks a dramatic reversal from the prior week’s sell-off, which had dragged the shares as low as €8.65 — a near-19% plunge from the €11 level briefly touched earlier this month.
Yet for all the pre-earnings enthusiasm, the stock remains 37% below its 52-week high of €14.97, reached on June 3. That gap underscores just how far the shares have fallen from their recent peak, and how much ground Nokia needs to regain to convince the market that its turnaround story is gaining traction.
Earnings Expectations: A High Bar for Q2
Nokia will release its second-quarter and first-half results on July 23 at approximately 8 a.m. Finnish time, followed by an analyst webcast and Q&A session in the afternoon. According to FactSet data, the consensus of 18 analysts points to an adjusted operating profit of €384 million, up from €301 million in the same period last year. Revenue is expected to reach €4.836 billion, compared with €4.546 billion a year earlier — representing year-on-year growth of roughly 6%.
The market’s expectations are particularly demanding this quarter. The consensus estimate implies that Nokia’s Q2 results will account for around 16% of the full-year profit forecast, placing it at the upper end of the company’s historical seasonal range of 12% to 16%. That leaves little room for disappointment: a miss on the bottom line could be interpreted as a warning signal for the remainder of the year.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nokia?
AI-RAN Platform Fuels the Rally Narrative
The recent surge in Nokia’s share price has been driven largely by the company’s push into artificial intelligence for mobile networks. Together with Nvidia, Nokia has launched what it calls the first commercial AI-RAN platform, enabling network operators to integrate AI capabilities directly into their radio access networks. The move has resonated with analysts and investors alike, sparking a wave of upgrades.
SEB Equities raised its rating on Nokia to Buy with a €12 price target, while Danske Bank followed suit with a Buy recommendation and a €14 target. JPMorgan went further, lifting its price target to $21 and maintaining an Overweight rating. The positive analyst sentiment was amplified by broader industry tailwinds: Super Micro, a server and AI infrastructure provider, reported a record order backlog exceeding $60 billion, lifting sentiment across the AI supply chain and providing additional buying momentum for Nokia.
A Bumpy Road: From €11 to €8.65 and Back
The path to Tuesday’s rally has been anything but smooth. Earlier this month, Nokia’s stock briefly climbed back above €11, only to see that rally evaporate as sellers regained control. The shares then slid to €8.65 last week, a decline of roughly 19% in a matter of days. The volatility has been extreme: the stock’s annualized 30-day volatility stands at 68%, while the relative strength index at 37.5 suggests the shares have cooled significantly from their June highs but have not yet entered oversold territory.
Despite the recent turbulence, Nokia’s stock remains 20.87% above its 200-day moving average of €7.77 — a sign that the broader upward trend over the past year remains intact, even if the recent correction has been painful.
CEO Warns of Europe’s AI Infrastructure Gap
Beyond the day-to-day price action, Nokia CEO Justin Hotard made headlines with a warning about Europe’s lagging AI infrastructure buildout. According to Reuters, Hotard cautioned that Europe risks falling behind the United States and China in the development of AI data centers. Data centers currently account for roughly 3% of total electricity consumption in the EU, a figure that is rising rapidly. Reuters also reported that Amazon has complained about delays in grid connections for data centers in Europe.
For Nokia, the cloud and AI business now represents approximately 8% of group revenue, and the company estimates that its addressable market in this segment will grow at an annual rate of 27% through 2028. That growth trajectory underscores the strategic importance of the AI-RAN push and the broader cloud portfolio for Nokia’s future revenue mix.
Defense and 5G Deals Add to the Growth Story
Alongside the AI narrative, Nokia has been quietly building momentum in other areas. The company signed a 5G expansion agreement with Taiwan Mobile to accelerate the deployment of AI-native mobile networks in Taiwan. On the defense front, Nokia Defense deepened its partnership with NestAI, aiming to deliver AI-powered capabilities for secure, NATO-compatible networks.
Nokia at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
These commercial wins provide tangible evidence that Nokia’s strategy is gaining traction, even as the company continues to face headwinds from competitive pressure and uneven telecom spending. Arista Networks remains a formidable rival in the AI data center market, while Ericsson continues to challenge Nokia in the traditional telecom equipment space.
What to Watch in Wednesday’s Report
When Nokia reports on Wednesday, the focus will likely shift from revenue growth to operational execution. Key metrics to watch include sequential net sales growth — the company has guided for a 5% to 9% range — and the evolution of the comparable operating margin. Both will need to justify the elevated valuation multiples that Nokia’s stock currently commands for 2026.
Currency effects are unlikely to be a major factor this quarter. The euro-dollar exchange rate is trading close to Nokia’s planning assumptions, leaving operational performance as the primary driver of the numbers.
The question hanging over the stock is whether Nokia’s AI transformation is finally translating into measurable financial results — or whether Tuesday’s rally will prove to be just another short-lived bounce in a volatile market. With the shares still deep in the red from their June highs, Wednesday’s earnings report will be the ultimate test of whether the AI narrative has real substance behind it.
Ad
Nokia Stock: New Analysis - 22 July
Fresh Nokia information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
Disclaimer regarding our articles: No investment advice, no buy or sell recommendation. Information on prices, companies, and markets is provided without guarantee; changes are possible at any time. Stock market transactions can lead to substantial losses. Our articles are created and reviewed in whole or in part automatically with the support of AI.
