Novo Nordisk: Pretoria Court Victory and Wegovy Pill Momentum Set Up a Pivotal Q4 FDA Showdown
Published on 06/24/2026 at 08:05 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
A South African court has handed Novo Nordisk a significant intellectual property win, while the Danish drugmaker’s shares have reclaimed a key technical threshold – yet the stock’s broader recovery narrative hinges on a single regulatory decision later this year.
The High Court in Pretoria ruled on Monday that iDexis must cease all production and promotion of semaglutide-containing products, the active ingredient behind Ozempic and Wegovy. The decision marks a tactical victory in Novo Nordisk’s global legal offensive, which has already seen more than 130 lawsuits filed across 40 US states. By expanding its legal reach to international markets, the company is signalling a more aggressive posture against unauthorised copies of its blockbuster GLP-1 drugs.
The stock has responded favourably. Shares closed at €41.56 on Tuesday, up roughly 9% over the past week and now trading just above the 200-day moving average of €41.05 – a threshold many technicians view as the dividing line between a bearish and bullish long-term trend. The Relative Strength Index sits at 69.1, flirting with overbought territory after a sharp 37% rally from the March 2026 low.
Supporting the share price, the Novo Nordisk Foundation has launched a €60 million, six-year research programme called CardioMetabolic Bridge aimed at developing new therapies for obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. A first laboratory opened this month in London, with additional centres in Germany and Italy to follow.
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Pill prescriptions drive near-term optimism
The real catalyst behind the recent advance, however, is the oral version of Wegovy. The tablet formulation has gained approvals in the US, the UK, and the United Arab Emirates, with further market launches scheduled for late 2026. According to CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen’s successor – who noted that the pill now accounts for roughly 60% of new US prescriptions – the majority of users had never previously taken a GLP-1 drug, suggesting the oral form is expanding the patient pool rather than cannibalising injectable sales.
That dynamic will be tested when the US Medicare GLP-1 Bridge Program begins on 1 July 2026, which could expand coverage to as many as 20 million beneficiaries. Early data on the programme’s uptake could provide a near-term boost to sentiment.
Structural headwinds remain stubborn
Despite these bright spots, Novo Nordisk faces mounting pressure on several fronts. US revenues fell 11% on a currency-adjusted basis in the first quarter of 2026, driven by lower realised prices. Efforts to cushion the blow with most-favoured-nation clauses have only partially offset the decline.
Meanwhile, Eli Lilly continues to widen its lead. In the US GLP-1 market, Lilly now commands roughly 60% share versus Novo Nordisk’s 39%, and the Indianapolis-based rival has also overtaken the Danish company in international markets. The competitive gap is growing, not shrinking.
Patent expirations add further uncertainty. Semaglutid loses protection in China in 2026 – a market representing about 6.5% of Novo Nordisk’s global sales – and local competitors will inevitably pressure prices and margins. Additional patent cliffs in India, Brazil, and Canada loom on the horizon.
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CagriSema: The make-or-break moment
All eyes are now on the fourth quarter of 2026, when the US Food and Drug Administration will decide on CagriSema, a once-weekly injectable combination of cagrilintid and semaglutide. If approved, it would become the first combination therapy of its kind on the US market and give Novo Nordisk a credible answer to Lilly’s tirzepatide, which delivered 25.5% weight loss in clinical trials.
CagriSema’s own Reimagine-1 study showed 12% weight loss – below the initial 25% target versus tirzepatide but still impressive, with strong blood-glucose lowering. The Reimagine-2 study demonstrated superiority over semaglutide alone at 68 weeks. A positive FDA verdict could fuel a sustained recovery, while further data requests would sink the shares.
What to watch next
The stock’s ability to hold above the 200-day average will depend on two near-term conditions: US prescriptions of the oral Wegovy pill staying above 3 million, and measurable volume from international launches in the second half. The next concrete test comes with second-quarter results, which the market will scrutinise for patient adherence at higher doses – the key to converting initial prescriptions into recurring revenue per patient. Management itself expects revenue to keep declining for the full year, underscoring the tension between the pill’s promise and the price erosion still under way.
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