Novo Nordisk's First Quarter: A Litmus Test for Margins Amid Price Cuts
Published on 04/11/2026 at 13:20 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
All eyes are on Novo Nordisk as it prepares to report first-quarter earnings on May 6. The results will deliver the first concrete evidence of how the Danish pharmaceutical giant’s profitability is holding up after implementing significant price reductions across key markets. This comes against a backdrop of intensifying competition and strategic operational adjustments.
In a significant logistical win for Europe, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) approved updated product information for the weight-loss drug Wegovy this week. The injectable treatment can now be transported for up to 48 hours at temperatures up to 30 degrees Celsius without requiring continuous refrigeration. This flexibility, a first for a GLP-1 weight-loss drug in Europe, is expected to simplify and reduce costs for the final delivery leg to pharmacies and online providers. It also paves the way for expanded digital health services across the continent. Meanwhile, a non-refrigerated pill version of Wegovy is already approved in the U.S., with an EU decision anticipated later this year.
The pressure to control costs is starkly evident in emerging markets. In India, the patent protection for semaglutid expired on March 20, prompting a flood of local generic competitors. Their market share surged to 33 percent in March. Novo Nordisk responded with aggressive price cuts effective April 1, slashing the entry price for Ozempic by 36 percent and for Wegovy by 48 percent. The strategy yielded a notable outcome: while Eli Lilly’s share of the Indian GLP-1 segment fell from 61 to 56 percent, Novo Nordisk maintained a stable 25 percent market share. The company has faced similar patent expiries this year in Canada, Brazil, and China.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?
These global price adjustments, combined with a disappointing annual forecast, have weighed heavily on the stock. Since the start of the year, Novo Nordisk shares have lost approximately 27 to 28 percent of their value. The decline was further pressured by weak trial data for CagriSema, which lagged behind Eli Lilly’s Zepbound in the REDEFINE-4 study. In response, the company has been actively supporting its share price through an ongoing buyback program. By April 1, Novo Nordisk had repurchased nearly 10 million B shares at an average price of 259.47 Danish kroner, totaling around 2.6 billion kroner since the program began on February 4. Around the turn of the month alone, over 800,000 shares were acquired.
Analysts at UBS are focusing intently on the upcoming quarterly report, maintaining a "Neutral" rating with a price target of 332 Danish kroner. They estimate the gross margin for Q1 at 79 percent but view this as a key variable. A potential positive catalyst could come from volume growth. UBS notes that demand for injectable Wegovy in the first quarter was stronger than Novo’s own projections, which might prompt the company to revise the lower end of its full-year sales forecast—currently set at minus 5 to minus 13 percent on a constant currency basis—upward.
Investor attention is also shifting to the oral version of Wegovy. Weekly prescription volumes in the U.S. are approaching 100,000, according to IQVIA data. However, this segment faces rising competitive pressure as Eli Lilly advances its own oral candidate, Oforglipron. The Q1 report will ultimately reveal whether unexpectedly strong volume growth can sufficiently offset the impact of widespread price reductions and validate the company’s repriced business model.
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Novo Nordisk Stock: New Analysis - 11 April
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