Novo Nordisk’s Oral Wegovy Wins EU Backing, Yet Capacity and Valuation Doubts Linger
Published on 07/17/2026 at 22:31 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Brussels has given Novo Nordisk the green light to market the first oral GLP-1 pill for weight loss in Europe, handing the Danish drugmaker a regulatory prize that Eli Lilly has yet to claim. The European Commission approved the 25-milligram oral semaglutide tablet under the Wegovy brand, alongside a higher-dose 7.2?mg injection. The decision, grounded in the OASIS?4 study where patients lost an average of 16.6% of their body weight after 64 weeks (versus 2.7% on placebo), applies across all 27 EU member states as well as Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein. Yet the stock’s immediate reaction — a decline of 2.36% on the day to €43.95 — signals that investors remain unconvinced the company can swiftly resolve the production bottlenecks that have dogged the tablet’s rollout.
The approval is the fifth worldwide for the oral formulation, following clearances in the United States, Great Britain, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Novo Nordisk plans to launch in additional countries from the second half of 2026. But the path to broader commercialisation is clouded by persistent questions about manufacturing scale. Nordnet analyst warnings that production capacity remains unclear echo the uncertainty that surrounded the U.S. launch on 5?January?2026. The EU nod therefore arrives with a caveat: the pill may be authorised, but can the company make enough of it?
Analysts have responded with a split verdict that neatly captures the tension between opportunity and execution risk. Morningstar raised its global revenue forecast for the Wegovy tablet to $11?billion by 2030, up from $9?billion, yet simultaneously cut its fair-value estimate for the shares from $54 to $48. The cut reflects a higher cost-of-capital assumption of 8.0% versus 7.2%, which the research house says places a heavier weight on the systematic risk of relying on self?pay patients. Morningstar also downgraded Novo Nordisk’s capital-allocation rating from “Exemplary” to “Standard”. First Group Bank trimmed its 2026 earnings-per-share estimate by a penny to $3.22, against a consensus of $3.38, while maintaining a “Hold” rating and a $65.56 price target derived from five buy, sixteen hold and two sell recommendations. Zacks Research went further, downgrading the stock to “Strong Sell”, and the institutional investor W.G. Shaheen & Associates slashed its position by 90.4% in the first quarter to just 25,305 shares.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?
Beyond Europe, Novo Nordisk is pressing ahead with geographic expansion that diversifies its regulatory wins. India’s drug regulator CDSCO has approved Wegovy for the treatment of metabolic dysfunction?associated steatohepatitis (MASH) — a first for a GLP?1 agent in the country, where roughly two?thirds of adults are affected. The company sold around 76,000 units of Wegovy in India during the first half of 2026, distributed exclusively by Emcure Pharmaceuticals under the brand name Poviztra, whose monthly price was cut in April from 8,790 to 3,999 rupees. In South Africa, Novo Nordisk and its partner Acino will launch the first authorised, originator?manufactured semaglutide copy on 27?July?2026, registered with SAHPRA. Pricing has yet to be disclosed. The move follows a preliminary legal victory against iDexis over unregistered compounded versions. With an estimated 2.3?million South African adults — roughly 7.2% of the population — living with diabetes, the market offers meaningful long?term potential. Morningstar, meanwhile, assigns Novo Nordisk a wide economic moat, noting its approximately 30% share of the $100?billion global diabetes market and about half of the $15?billion?plus insulin market.
The company is also advancing its pipeline beyond semaglutide. The dual GLP?1/amylin agonist Amycretin delivered a reduction in HbA1c of up to 1.71 percentage points and weight loss of up to 14.6% at the 40?mg dose in a Phase?2 diabetes trial, with no plateau evident at higher doses — suggesting further efficacy headroom. And the share buyback programme, a $15?billion?plus commitment, has already completed roughly 44% of its annual target, providing a technical floor for the stock even as the fundamental narrative sways.
At the current price of €43.95, the stock sits 27.9% below the 52?week high of €60.95 reached on 25?July?2025, but still 9.8% above its 50?day moving average of €40.03, indicating a recovery phase that has built over the past several weeks. HSBC raised its price target to 300 Danish kroner from 280, while the analyst consensus remains broadly neutral with seven buy and two sell ratings. The overarching question, however, is whether regulatory wins in Europe, India and South Africa will be enough to restore investor confidence in a company whose share price remains heavily tethered to the speed at which it can resolve its well?publicised capacity constraints for the oral Wegovy tablet.
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