Novo Nordisk’s Two-Track Strategy: Oral Wegovy Gains Traction as CagriSema’s FDA Verdict Hovers
Published on 07/22/2026 at 13:32 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Novo Nordisk’s shares are treading water at €43.16, down 0.78% on the day, as investors juggle two competing narratives. On one side, the oral version of Wegovy is outperforming early expectations, prompting a key analyst upgrade. On the other, the market is waiting with bated breath for a US regulatory decision on CagriSema, the company’s next-generation obesity drug — a ruling that could reshape the stock’s trajectory for the rest of 2026.
The stock has staged a notable recovery from its March trough of €30.25, climbing roughly 44% to current levels. Yet it still sits nearly 29% below the 52-week high of €60.95 hit in July 2025, a reminder of how much ground has been lost amid intensifying competition in the GLP-1 space.
Citi Turns More Constructive on Oral Wegovy’s Promise
Ahead of the company’s half-year results due on August 5, Citi has lifted its price target on Novo Nordisk to 330 Danish kroner from 290 kroner, though it maintains a neutral rating. The revision stems from a better-than-anticipated launch trajectory for oral Wegovy, which the bank sees as a partial offset to persistent pricing pressure in both the obesity and diabetes segments.
Citi has significantly upgraded its estimates. For 2026, the bank now forecasts revenue and operating profit 4% to 5% higher than previously modeled. Earnings per share projections for 2027 through 2030 have been raised by roughly 7%, supported by favorable currency effects and strong Wegovy trends in the second quarter. The new target price is based on 16 times expected 2027 earnings, up from 15 times, reflecting improved growth prospects tied to the oral formulation.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?
For the upcoming quarterly report, Citi expects adjusted operating profit of 27.2 billion kroner, a 9% decline at constant exchange rates, on revenue of 72.7 billion kroner, down 1%. Both figures exclude effects from the US 340B drug discount program. The bank sees oral Wegovy contributing 4 billion kroner, or roughly $630 million, to the top line.
Despite the upgraded outlook, Citi remains on the sidelines. The bank believes the improved fundamentals are already priced into the stock. The broader analyst community shares this caution: of 26 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it neutral or sell. The average 12-month price target stands at 317.2 kroner, with a wide range from 200 to 453 kroner.
The FDA Wild Card: CagriSema’s Pending Verdict
While oral Wegovy provides a near-term bright spot, the biggest catalyst on the horizon is the FDA’s review of CagriSema, Novo’s next-generation obesity treatment. The company has submitted a marketing application for weight reduction based on the Phase 3 Redefine 1 study, in which 91.9% of participants achieved at least 5% weight loss versus 31.5% on placebo. A separate application for type 2 diabetes remains in earlier discussions with regulators.
No decision date has been announced, though Novo has indicated a ruling is expected sometime in 2026. The stakes could hardly be higher. Approval would give Novo a second flagship product just as Eli Lilly’s competitive pressure intensifies. A delay or rejection, by contrast, would remove a central growth argument at a moment when the stock is testing its 50-day moving average.
The legal backdrop adds another layer of tension. Novo is suing Eli Lilly over allegedly misleading advertising related to dosing comparisons, after Lilly’s Zepbound beat Wegovy in a head-to-head study last year. Novo subsequently secured approval for a higher dose of its drug — one not used in that trial — but the lawsuit underscores how fiercely contested the US weight-loss market has become.
Buyback Program Provides a Floor
Amid the regulatory and competitive noise, Novo continues to execute a substantial share repurchase program. The company plans to buy back up to 15 billion kroner in B-shares over 12 months starting February 4, 2026. The current tranche, launched on May 6, runs through February 1, 2027, with a volume of roughly 11.2 billion kroner.
As of July 17, Novo had repurchased 24,959,179 B-shares at an average price of 274.58 kroner, for a total transaction value of about 6.85 billion kroner. The company now holds 42,144,480 treasury B-shares, representing 0.9% of its share capital.
Novo Nordisk at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Technical Picture: Recovery Underway, but Fragile
The stock currently trades 7.3% above its 50-day moving average of €40.24, and 8.26% above that same average in euro terms. The relative strength index sits at 59.2, suggesting nascent buying pressure without signaling overbought conditions. However, the annualized 30-day volatility of 25.53% means swings around any CagriSema news are likely to be sharp in either direction.
Beyond CagriSema, Novo is also advancing Zenagamtide, an injectable GLP-1/amylin combination candidate, as part of a broader pipeline strategy. Martin Lange, the company’s chief scientific officer, has emphasized that Novo is building on the established profile of semaglutide while expanding into amylin-based candidates.
For now, the August 5 earnings report will serve as the next near-term test. The key question is whether oral Wegovy’s momentum can offset pricing headwinds in both core segments, while the buyback continues to underpin demand. But the bigger prize — and the bigger risk — remains the FDA’s decision on CagriSema, a verdict that could either validate the recovery or reignite the sell-off.
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