Novo Nordisk Stages a Two-Front Offensive: Oral Wegovy Explodes in the US While China Beckons
Published on 06/19/2026 at 21:06 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Shares of Novo Nordisk surged more than 4% on Friday to 39.23 euros, as investors digested a barrage of bullish signals that cut through the gloom of a brutal 2026 outlook. The Danish drugmaker is mounting a multi-pronged comeback: a record-breaking launch of its oral Wegovy pill in the US, a fresh push into China, and a promising pipeline that could reshape the narrative around its GLP-1 franchise.
The strongest ammunition comes from the oral version of Wegovy. In just over five months, Novo has racked up more than 3 million prescriptions for the 25-milligram tablet — one of the fastest US pharma launches by volume in recent memory. Crucially, around 80% of those patients had never taken a GLP-1 drug before, signalling market expansion rather than cannibalisation of the injectable business. By April, weekly new prescriptions for the Wegovy franchise hit 116,000, nearly double the 62,000 posted by Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide. Novo now commands roughly 55% of the global injectable GLP-1 market by weekly volume.
The momentum is catching the attention of sell-side analysts. Berenberg’s Kerry Holford reiterated her buy recommendation and lifted the price target from 300 to 325 Danish kroner, citing the surprising demand for the oral pill. The firm now expects Novo to hit the upper end of its full-year guidance.
Meanwhile, the company is wasting no time expanding its geographic footprint. CEO Mike Doustdar made his first visit to China, announcing plans to file for approval of the oral Wegovy pill within months. The move targets the world’s second-largest pharmaceutical market, where Novo is playing catch-up with Eli Lilly. The US rival submitted its own oral candidate, Orforglipron, to Chinese regulators at the end of 2025. Doustdar also warned that generic competition could emerge as early as the second quarter of next year, adding urgency to the approval push.
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The China offensive comes hand-in-hand with a broader international strategy. Beyond the US, Novo expects to launch the oral Wegovy pill in Europe and other regions in the second half of 2026, after the European Medicines Agency’s CHMP issued a positive opinion. International obesity sales surged 44% at constant exchange rates in the first quarter, with Europe and Canada up 63% and Asia-Pacific rising 87%. These figures are often buried under the headlines about US pricing pressure.
That pressure is very real. Novo’s 2026 outlook calls for a 5% to 13% revenue decline at constant exchange rates — the first annual drop in over a decade. Starting in 2027, the company plans to slash US list prices for Wegovy, Ozempic, the oral Wegovy pill and Rybelsus by up to 50%, bringing monthly costs to around 675 euros. Eli Lilly has already grabbed more than 60% of the US market, driven by Zepbound’s blockbuster run. The stock, now trading nearly 40% below its all-time high of 65.20 euros, reflects that structural shift.
Yet the recent price action suggests the market is beginning to look past the trough. The relative strength index sits at 58.6, and the stock has clawed back from the lows, trading about 5% below its 200-day moving average of 41.16 euros. The first-quarter results — though showing a 4% adjusted revenue decline — prompted management to lift the full-year forecast, thanks to the oral pill’s outperformance and international strength.
Novo Nordisk at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Medium-term hopes rest heavily on CagriSema, Novo’s next-generation obesity candidate. The company filed for US approval in December 2025, with a decision expected in the fourth quarter of 2026. Strong diabetes data presented at the ADA congress bolstered the case. Beyond weight loss, Novo is also progressing Etavopivat for sickle cell disease; a phase 3 trial met both co-primary endpoints, and the first submission is planned for the second half of 2026. Diversification into rare diseases offers a hedge against the commoditisation of the GLP-1 market.
The next major test comes on 5 August 2026, when Novo reports first-half results. For now, the bull case rests on a simple calculation: the stock has already priced in a grim 2026, but the oral Wegovy launch, the China push and a pipeline that extends well beyond obesity could flip the narrative. Investors are betting that the worst of the re-rating is behind them — but they will need CagriSema to win FDA approval and the international rollout to deliver before they can declare victory.
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