Nvidia Faces a Pivotal Earnings Test with Vera Rubin on the Horizon and China Export Curbs Biting

A $355 billion swing in market value hangs in the balance as Nvidia prepares to release its fiscal first-quarter results after the closing bell today. The options market has priced in a potential shift of that magnitude, reflecting the extraordinary stakes surrounding the chipmaker’s most closely watched quarterly report.

Wall Street expects Nvidia to post adjusted earnings per share of $1.78 — a 120% leap from the year-ago period — on revenue of approximately $79.2 billion. That top-line figure would represent a year-over-year surge of nearly 80%. Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider goes further, projecting a beat of around $2 billion and setting his second-quarter revenue estimate at $87.7 billion, six percent above the consensus. The gross margin is expected to hold steady at 74.5%, even as the company navigates the complex transition to new chip architectures.

The stock currently trades at €193.32, up 20% since the start of the year and within roughly 4% of its all-time high reached last week. Yet analysts’ price targets span an unusually wide range from $140 to $380, underscoring the deep uncertainty over Nvidia’s trajectory.

Vera Rubin Takes Centre Stage

While the current Blackwell generation continues to drive revenue, the market’s focus is already shifting to the next big leap. Nvidia’s upcoming “Vera Rubin” architecture, designed for autonomous AI systems, has secured substantial memory capacity from partners including SK Hynix. Mass production at TSMC is slated to begin in the second half of 2026.

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In a notable nod to the foundry’s resurgence, Nvidia selected Intel’s Xeon-6 processor as the host CPU for its DGX Rubin NVL8 systems — a move that highlights the evolving competitive landscape. The data-center segment now accounts for more than 90% of Nvidia’s revenue, and analysts estimate that division generated roughly $73 billion in the just-completed quarter.

China Remains the Wild Card

Geopolitical tensions continue to cloud the outlook. The Trump administration has banned exports of the H20 chips to China, forcing Nvidia to record a $4.5 billion write-down in the prior quarter. Washington did approve the sale of H200 chips to about ten Chinese companies, including Lenovo, but not a single chip has shipped — Chinese firms pulled back after signals from Beijing.

The earnings call tonight will be scrutinised for management’s guidance on both the China strategy and the margin trajectory as the company ramps toward Rubin. “The decisive question is less the revenue number itself,” said one strategist, “but Nvidia’s forward-looking commentary on these two fronts.”

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Hyperscaler Spending Fuels the Boom

The immediate tailwind remains formidable. The four largest hyperscalers — Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta — plan to invest a combined $725 billion in infrastructure this year, an increase of 77% over 2025. A lion’s share of that capital is flowing into AI data centres, directly benefiting Nvidia’s accelerator business, where it holds an estimated 81% market share.

Nvidia’s market capitalisation currently stands at $5.5 trillion, and the stock is trading roughly 14% above its 50-day moving average. Whether that valuation holds depends on tonight’s numbers — and on the clarity management provides about the next chapter in the AI chip cycle. The broader semiconductor sector is watching closely: AMD, Micron and Intel have all seen recent pullbacks, but Nvidia’s report will set the tone for the entire industry.

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