Nvidia Pivots to Recurring Cloud Revenue as Michael Burry Places a Bearish Bet
Published on 07/03/2026 at 18:08 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Nvidia is rewriting its playbook. The chipmaker has unveiled a new revenue-sharing program called AI Compute Partnership, or ACP, that marks a fundamental shift from its traditional hardware-selling model. Under the program, cloud providers and AI startups gain access to Nvidia’s high-end GPUs, and in return, Nvidia takes a cut of their future cloud revenues. To bankroll that transformation, the company is taking on at least $20 billion in new debt.
Two customers have already signed up. Sharon AI plans to deploy up to 40,000 Grace-Blackwell GB300 GPUs, while Firmus Technologies is building an AI factory in Indonesia with 360 megawatts of capacity and as many as 170,000 GPUs. Nvidia describes the loan as funding both the ACP expansion and general corporate purposes, effectively positioning itself as something of a central bank for computing power.
The move comes as Nvidia’s sovereign AI business surges. In fiscal 2026, which ended January 25, revenue from government-run AI projects more than tripled to over $30 billion, representing roughly 14% of total sales. Key contracts came from Canada, France, the Netherlands, Singapore, and the United Kingdom. A partnership with Palantir is expected to deepen that channel, targeting governments and large enterprises that want to keep their data and models on home soil.
Yet even as Nvidia doubles down on its own strategy, some prominent investors are heading the other way. Michael Burry, famous for his 2008 short against the U.S. housing market, has opened a bearish position against the chipmaker through his fund Scion Asset Management. The trade was disclosed in early July with an entry price around $198. Burry has also shorted Tesla and the semiconductor index SOXX, warning of parallels to the dot-com era and fears of overcapacity in the AI sector.
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Burry’s bet landed in a nervous market. U.S. jobs data for June came in at just 57,000 new positions against expectations of 110,000, triggering a rotation out of technology stocks and into defensive sectors. The Dow Jones hit new record highs above 52,000 points even as AI names sold off. Nvidia closed Thursday at €170.58, 15.76% below its May peak of €202.50.
The stock’s technical picture adds to the caution. The 14-day relative strength index sits at 41.7, pointing to weak momentum. Shares trade 5.92% below their 50-day moving average of €181.32, though they remain roughly 4% above the 200-day line. On a 30-day basis, Nvidia has lost nearly 8%, but it still holds a year-over-year gain of about 26%.
Fundamentally, the valuation has compressed. Nvidia trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 20 to 22 for the next twelve months — well below its own five-year average of 53 and the sector median of 34. The PEG ratio stands at 0.49, paired with an expected earnings growth rate of 81%. Some analysts see value characteristics emerging, even as others warn of a bubble.
Nvidia is also facing pressure from its own largest customers. Anthropic is reportedly working with Samsung Foundry on a 2-nanometer custom chip, an effort to reduce reliance on Nvidia’s accelerators, which command more than 70% of the market. Meanwhile, Meta Platforms is exploring the sale or lease of excess data center capacity, which could dampen near-term demand for new GPU clusters.
Nvidia has pushed back on multiple fronts. In addition to the ACP revenue-share model, the company joined an $800 million funding round for Together AI, a GPU-cloud provider for open-source models, at a valuation of $8.3 billion. The chipmaker also deepened its technical cooperation with security firm Verkada, focusing on video search powered by Nvidia’s Cosmos technology.
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Geographically, the center of gravity is shifting. CEO Jensen Huang has announced plans to boost annual spending in Taiwan from $100 billion to $150 billion. A new campus called “Constellation” is slated to open in Taipei by 2030 and will employ around 4,000 people. The regional tilt shows up in the numbers: revenue from China and Hong Kong collapsed 50% year over year, while sales from Taiwan surged more than 50%.
A leadership change is also on the horizon. Nicholas Parker, a 26-year Microsoft veteran, will take over as executive vice president of worldwide field operations on August 24, 2026, succeeding Jay Puri, who is retiring after 21 years at the company. For the current quarter, analysts expect Nvidia to post revenue of $91.73 billion, a 96% jump from a year earlier. The board has also authorized an $80 billion share buyback program, a signal of confidence in long-term cash generation.
Whether that confidence is enough to counter Burry’s wager will depend on the next earnings report. For now, Nvidia is betting its own money — and its debt — on a future where it no longer just sells chips, but the access to them.
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