Nvidia’s China Dilemma and Nebius Stake Paint a Picture of Strategic Pivots
Published on 07/22/2026 at 14:41 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Nvidia finds itself navigating a complex landscape where geopolitical friction and strategic investments are shaping its trajectory. The chipmaker’s stock closed at €179.64, down 3.08% for the week, reflecting persistent uncertainty around its China business. Yet a separate disclosure of a 9.3% stake in AI cloud firm Nebius, coupled with fresh production updates for its next-generation Rubin chips, offers a counterweight to the bearish sentiment.
The China Conundrum: A License Without Revenue
The US government granted Nvidia permission in February 2026 to ship limited quantities of its H200 chip to select Chinese customers. But nearly a year later, not a single dollar of revenue has materialized. The approval comes with stringent conditions: each H200 chip must undergo US inspection before shipment, and a 25% tariff applies upon import into the US.
This pattern is familiar. The Commerce Department has authorized roughly ten Chinese firms—including Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance—to purchase the H200, with a cap of 75,000 units per customer. Yet no deliveries have occurred, as the deal remains mired in legal limbo. Even the earlier, more established H20 license generated only about $60 million in revenue after receiving US approval in August 2025. Chinese authorities have consistently blocked domestic buyers on security grounds, raising the risk that the H200 channel could suffer the same fate.
A Cloud Bet Pays Off on Paper
Amid this uncertainty, Nvidia revealed a growing stake in Nebius, an AI cloud infrastructure firm. In a Schedule 13G filing on July 20, Nvidia disclosed a 9.3% holding, equivalent to 22.26 million shares. The position stems from a $2 billion investment to support Nebius’s data center expansion.
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The disclosure moved Nebius shares sharply higher, with the stock gaining 7% in premarket trading on Tuesday. Nvidia’s own shares rose 2.10% to €181.88 on the same day. However, the mechanics of the filing are important: only 1.19 million of the 22.26 million shares come from earlier 13F filings. The remaining 21.07 million shares result from a prepaid warrant that remains locked until September 11. Because the warrant can be exercised within 60 days of July 13, regulators require it to be counted toward economic ownership, explaining the jump from roughly 8.3% in March to 9.3% now.
The Nebius investment is part of a broader pattern. Nvidia has deployed similar-sized stakes across the AI supply chain, including a separate $2 billion deal with Marvell Technology and holdings in Synopsys, CoreWeave, Coherent, and Lumentum. Its largest single investment remains OpenAI, where Nvidia closed a $30 billion stake in February 2026 as part of a roughly $110 billion funding round—significantly less than the originally announced framework of up to $100 billion.
CEO Jensen Huang hinted that the investment spree in AI labs may be winding down. The OpenAI deal could be “the last time,” he said, citing the startup’s planned IPO. A similar engagement with Anthropic, where Nvidia and Microsoft jointly committed up to $15 billion, is also unlikely to be repeated.
At Nebius, the business rationale is concrete. Meta signed a long-term agreement in March to invest up to $27 billion in Nebius’s AI infrastructure. Nebius specializes in GPU-intensive workloads, positioning Nvidia as both hardware supplier and co-owner.
Rubin Rollout and the Kyber Question
Positive signals emerged on the product front. Nvidia Vice President Ian Buck confirmed that computer systems based on the new Vera Rubin technology have already been shipped to major AI firms and are nearing production deployment. The Rubin chips are already rolling off assembly lines in Oberon racks, with Rubin Ultra expected to follow once the Kyber platform is ready.
But a report from SemiAnalysis in July stirred unease. The research firm claimed Nvidia’s next-generation Kyber NVL144 server platform is delayed by more than a year, to 2028, due to circuit board manufacturing issues. Nvidia responded cautiously, with a spokesperson telling Bloomberg only that the “roadmap is intact.” Futurum Group CEO Daniel Newman described the phrasing as leaving “room for interpretation.” The ambiguity leaves open whether the flagship Rubin platform will launch on schedule, even as the high-end Rubin Ultra system within the Kyber rack could face delays.
Technical Picture and Key Catalysts
Technically, the stock sits about 10% below its 52-week high of €202.50, reached on May 14. The relative strength index (RSI) stands at 53.5, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Year-to-date, Nvidia has gained 13.48%, with a 12-month return of 27.85%. The analyst price target of €264.83 implies roughly 47% upside from current levels.
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The bull case hinges less on China and more on the investment appetite of Nvidia’s largest customers. Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Amazon are set to report earnings shortly. If these hyperscalers confirm or increase their AI infrastructure plans, it would signal sustained chip orders for Nvidia, independent of the China situation.
The bear case, meanwhile, centers on the recurring pattern of US license gestures toward China failing to generate real revenue. The H200 program has produced zero sales so far. If Chinese authorities continue to block domestic buyers, the new channel could evaporate. Additionally, the Kyber delay allegations remain unresolved. Any actual postponement would give competitors like AMD more time to catch up in AI server hardware.
The next clear milestones are the quarterly results from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet, which will reveal how robust the industry’s AI investments truly are. Nvidia’s own earnings follow later in the reporting cycle. Until then, the status of the China license and any new statements on Kyber will remain the most closely watched variables for the stock.
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