Nvidia's Nebius Stake Is Official — But the Real Test Comes Next Week
Published on 07/22/2026 at 03:12 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The paperwork landed on July 20, but the market had already started pricing it in the night before. Nvidia's Schedule 13G filing with the SEC confirmed what many suspected: the chip giant holds a 9.3% stake in Nebius, the Dutch cloud infrastructure company. Shares shot up 19.11% on Tuesday to €190.60, though the rally had actually begun Monday evening when the filing first became public, with after-hours gains of 4.6% spilling into pre-market trading that added nearly 7%.
The filing itself is a formal disclosure, not a fresh investment. Nvidia holds 22.26 million Class A shares, of which just 1.19 million came from a position already reported in the first quarter. The remaining 21 million shares trace back to a pre-funded warrant issued on March 11, 2026, as part of the $2 billion investment Nvidia announced that spring. The 13G designation signals passive intent — Nvidia isn't seeking control — and crucially, the warrant can't be exercised until September 11, 2026, meaning no near-term selling pressure from the chipmaker.
The Rally Has Company
The Nvidia news landed in a market already digesting another piece of positive news. Just days earlier, on July 17, Nebius secured a $775 million secured credit facility backed by its own GPU infrastructure. That loan was designed to address a nagging concern among investors: dilution. By tapping debt rather than equity, Nebius sidestepped the need for a share issuance that would have weighed on existing holders.
Freedom Capital Markets upgraded the stock to "Buy" in the wake of both developments, calling the credit line a "positive catalyst." The bank's view reflects a broader narrative taking shape: Nebius is building a financing model that converts its revenue-generating hardware into growth capital without diluting shareholders.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?
Still a Long Way From the Peak
For all the excitement, the stock remains 26.97% below its June record of €261.00. The gap underscores just how far the shares had fallen — into the €150 range — before this week's bounce. The 200-day moving average sits at €119.93, meaning the stock still trades 43.63% above that long-term benchmark, a reminder of the enormous run-up over the past twelve months.
The volatility is baked into the DNA. Annualized 30-day volatility stands at 118.09%, and the relative strength index of 50.5 signals neither overbought nor oversold territory. The stock is waiting for its next catalyst.
What the Numbers Say
The valuation picture is mixed. The trailing twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio sits at roughly 70, while the five-year median was 27.81. On forward earnings expectations, the multiple balloons above 200 — a figure that reflects the market's bet on explosive growth rather than current profitability.
Nebius points to a contracted revenue pipeline exceeding $40 billion with investment-grade clients including Microsoft and Meta. The company expects to raise additional capital on similarly favorable terms, and the $775 million loan — secured by installed GPU hardware and cash flows from an existing customer contract — is designed as a repeatable model.
The Insider Signal
Not everyone is buying the story with both hands. Over the past three months, insiders have sold shares worth $141.8 million. That's a significant figure, and while positive headlines can temporarily overshadow it, the pattern of management selling tends to weigh on sentiment over time.
Nebius at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Competitive pressure also looms. Other neocloud providers have seen their stocks slide whenever hyperscalers announce new capacity plans, a reminder that sentiment in this sector can shift abruptly.
The Quarter That Matters
All of this converges on a single date: July 29, when Nebius reports second-quarter results. The market will be watching whether contracted revenue and expanding capacity actually translate into reported numbers. The bull case rests on growing high-quality backlog and a financing structure that avoids dilution. The bear case centers on valuation and the sheer capital requirements of a business that plans to invest $20-25 billion in 2026.
If the quarterly report confirms the trend on capacity and revenue, the year-to-date gain of 159.32% could find a new foundation. If it disappoints on capacity build-out or capital burn, the stock could slide toward its 200-day moving average of €119.93. For now, the RSI sits at a neutral 50.5 — the stock is waiting for its next signal, and it arrives in eight days.
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Nebius Stock: New Analysis - 22 July
Fresh Nebius information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
Disclaimer regarding our articles: No investment advice, no buy or sell recommendation. Information on prices, companies, and markets is provided without guarantee; changes are possible at any time. Stock market transactions can lead to substantial losses. Our articles are created and reviewed in whole or in part automatically with the support of AI.
