Nvidia’s Next Growth Story Is Being Built in Factories, Not on the Trading Floor
Published on 07/17/2026 at 07:01 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Nvidia’s latest moves show a business still being shaped as much by supply chains and government-backed infrastructure as by day-to-day market sentiment. While the stock softened in Europe on Thursday, the bigger picture was being written elsewhere: in Taiwan, where TSMC lifted spending again, and in Japan, where Jensen Huang unveiled fresh AI partnerships and new hardware aimed at robotics.
The semiconductor sector was broadly under pressure on Thursday. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by as much as 5% intraday after TSMC reported a 77% jump in net profit from the same quarter a year earlier, but also raised its 2026 capital expenditure plan to between 60 billion and 64 billion US dollars from a prior 52 billion to 56 billion US dollars. That came on top of an additional 100 billion US dollars added to its Arizona investment, taking that project to 265 billion US dollars in total. Investors read the larger spending plans as a sign of higher costs across the supply chain. Memory names such as Micron, SanDisk and Western Digital also sold off, the Kospi dropped sharply in South Korea as Samsung and SK Hynix fell, and the Bank of Korea raised its policy rate for the first time since 2023.
Against that backdrop, Nvidia’s German-listed shares closed Thursday at 181.20 euros, down 1.95% over seven trading days. The stock now sits 10.52% below its 52-week high, and it is also more than 10% under its record peak of 202.50 euros from May, though still 27% above its July 2025 low.
The more important signal for Nvidia, however, may be what its suppliers are saying about demand. TSMC lifted its revenue growth target for the current year to more than 40%, while ASML, the Dutch lithography specialist, has already raised its 2026 sales outlook for a second time this year to 43 billion to 45 billion euros. Taken together, the two companies point to a production chain that is still expanding aggressively rather than easing off. Nvidia’s next-generation chips are clearly still running into capacity limits.
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That message was reinforced by Huang’s trip to Japan, where Nvidia advanced its push into physical AI. The company introduced Cosmos 3 Edge, a 4 billion-parameter model designed for on-device robot control and running on the new Jetson T2000 and T3000 modules. More than 20 Japanese companies joined the Cosmos Coalition, including Fanuc, Yaskawa, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Fujitsu, Hitachi, Sony and SoftBank. Fujitsu will lead a shared control platform with Fanuc, Yaskawa and Kawasaki.
Japan is also becoming a showcase for Nvidia’s role in national AI infrastructure. Under the state-backed FRONTia initiative, the company will supply Noetra with 13,750 Vera CPUs and 27,500 Rubin GPUs for a 140-megawatt data center scheduled to come online in June 2028. The Japanese government is contributing about 2.4 billion US dollars in an initial tranche, with 6.2 billion US dollars planned over five years. Huang also met METI minister Ryosei Akazawa during the trip. Nvidia said sovereign AI will generate more than 30 billion US dollars in revenue in fiscal 2026, triple the level of the prior year.
Separately, Huang moved to calm speculation on July 15 that the next chip family, Vera Rubin, was slipping. He said Rubin is already in production and that “gigantic” volumes are coming. Rumors had swirled around a thermal lid issue and slower HBM4 qualification by SK Hynix. Nvidia expects Rubin NVL72 systems to begin shipping in the second half of 2026, while the larger Kyber NVL144 platform is now said to be delayed from 2027 to 2028. The company has also cut the number of approved Asian buyers on a new whitelist by more than half after a 2.5 billion US dollar smuggling case.
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Even with those complications, analysts appear unfazed. KeyBanc’s John Vinh raised his price target from 310 to 330 US dollars after checking supply chains in Asia, while reiterating his forecast for 1.7 million to 1.8 million Rubin units shipped in 2026, alongside 5.5 million to 6 million Blackwell GPUs. Bank of America has also pointed to networking as the next growth engine: revenue in that segment rose 199% in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 to 14.8 billion US dollars. For the same quarter, Nvidia reported total revenue up 85% to 81.6 billion US dollars and data center revenue up 92% to 75.2 billion US dollars. The company guided for about 91 billion US dollars in revenue in the current quarter, backed by 119 billion US dollars in supply commitments and an 80 billion US dollar share buyback program.
Valuation models remain elevated. Simply Wall St estimates fair value at 296.81 US dollars, while the analyst consensus from Barchart is around 303 US dollars. Another consensus cited after the latest supplier and ASML updates puts the stock at about 328.60 euros. For now, Nvidia sits between short-term swings and a capital-spending cycle that still looks very much alive.
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