Nvidia’s Passive Stake in Nebius Carries a Long Lock-Up — and a $775M Credit Line
Published on 07/21/2026 at 15:54 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
When Nvidia filed a Schedule 13G with the SEC on 13 July, it formally confirmed what the market had long suspected: the chip giant holds a 9.3% stake in Nebius, the Dutch AI?cloud infrastructure provider. The news sent the stock on a two?day tear, from Monday’s close of €160.02 — already up 2.89% on the session — to €172.12 by Tuesday, a further 7.56% gain. Yet the filing’s passive?investor designation and the strict lock?up on the underlying warrants complicate any simple reading of the rally.
The stake comprises 22.26 million Class A shares. Of those, 1.19 million were already reported in the first quarter, while the remaining 21.065 million come from a pre?financed warrant issued on 11 March 2026. Under the terms, Nvidia cannot exercise the warrant — or sell the shares it would receive — until 11 September 2026. Until then, the position is purely economic ownership. The 13G filing signals that Nvidia has no intention of seeking control, and the long lock?up effectively removes any near?term overhang from a potential block trade.
That structural patience is echoed in Nebius’s own capital strategy. On 17 July the company secured its first secured credit facility, a $775 million loan backed by deployed GPU infrastructure and contracted cash flows from an investment?grade customer. MUFG structured the deal as sole bookrunner; the facility matures on 31 October 2030 and carries an interest rate of SOFR plus 2.50%. Nebius chief operating officer Ophir Nave called the financing a critical enabler for faster scaling. The move also eased investor fears of equity dilution — a concern that had weighed on the stock after months of insider selling.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?
Alongside the loan, Nebius unveiled a new asset?light business model in which infrastructure partners operate its AI?cloud platform in their own data centres, while Nebius provides the architecture, hardware design and software and then brings the capacity to market. Founder and CEO Arkady Volozh pitched the model as a flexible way for partners to capitalise on AI?sector growth without building their own stacks.
The strategic package — Nvidia’s endorsement, the secured debt, and the asset?light pivot — prompted analyst action. Northland Securities raised its price target on Nebius from $248 to $410 and reiterated an “Outperform” rating. Still, the current share price trades a long way from that target. After hitting an all?time high of €261.00 on 22 June, the stock has dropped 34% from that peak. Over the past 30 days it lost 35.58%, though the recent rebound has partially recouped that decline. Year?to?date, Nebius is still up 117.71%.
Valuation metrics underscore the volatility. The trailing 12?month price?to?earnings ratio stands at nearly 60, compared with a five?year median of 27.81. On forward earnings that multiple surges above 200, reflecting the extraordinary growth expectations baked into the price. The relative strength index sits at 44.3 — neutral territory on a stock that has been whipsawing in both directions. Meanwhile, the current share price is 43.63% above its 200?day moving average, a reminder of the massive distance covered over the past year.
That faith in future growth is tested by sustained insider selling. Over the past three months, Nebius insiders have offloaded $141.8 million worth of shares — a counter?signal even as positive news flows. Still, the medium?term trajectory hinges on two catalysts: the roughly $40 billion in contracted future business with hyperscaler clients like Microsoft and Meta, and the eventual activation of Nvidia’s warrants in September 2026. Only then will the chipmaker shift from passive holder to a fully active, and potentially more influential, large?scale investor.
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