Nvidia's Rally Digests a Delayed Chip and a Shrinking China Market — For Now
Published on 07/14/2026 at 22:22 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Nvidia shares have extended a seven-day winning streak, adding 3.76% to hit €185.56, even as the company navigates two significant headwinds: a reported delay in a key component for its next-generation chip architecture, and a relentless tightening of US export controls that has all but shut off the Chinese market. The stock now sits within striking distance of its 52-week high of €202.50, powered by demand for AI infrastructure that investors believe outweighs both setbacks.
The Kyber rack system, a supporting element of Nvidia's upcoming Rubin Ultra chips, has reportedly slipped to 2028 due to manufacturing difficulties, according to a CNBC report from July 5. Nvidia itself has not confirmed the delay, and the market has largely shrugged it off — the stock has climbed 7.55% over the past seven sessions. The broader Rubin architecture remains on track for an early launch, roughly two quarters ahead of the original schedule, creating an unusual dynamic where one part of the roadmap accelerates while a related subsystem hits a snag. For now, traders are betting the Kyber hitch is an isolated problem, not a sign of systemic execution risk.
Meanwhile, a far more structural challenge is unfolding in China. In late May 2026, the US expanded export restrictions to cover advanced processors including Nvidia's Blackwell line, requiring licenses for any transfer to entities based in China or Macau. The definition of controlled semiconductors was broadened to include chips used for AI training and supercomputing, and a loophole that allowed Chinese firms to access restricted chips through foreign subsidiaries was closed. In early June, the Commerce Department further tightened the rules, applying the licensing requirement to any company with a Chinese headquarters or parent, regardless of where its operating subsidiary is registered.
The cumulative impact is stark. Nvidia itself had estimated in April 2025 that China restrictions could cost it up to $5.5 billion. In a subsequent quarter, the company actually booked a $4.5 billion hit. CEO Jensen Huang described the Chinese market as effectively closed, having once represented an annual revenue opportunity of several tens of billions of dollars. The company has now removed China-based data-center revenue entirely from its forecasts — an implicit admission that one of the world's largest economies is no longer a viable customer for its most advanced chips.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nvidia?
Yet the stock continues to rally. Nvidia is trading 2.09% above its 50-day moving average of €181.75 and 12.46% above its 200-day average of €165.00. The relative strength index sits at 57.9, leaving room before technical overbought conditions would cap further gains. On a year-to-date basis, the stock is up 15.18%, and the 12-month gain stands at 31.96%. The annualized 30-day volatility of 38.05% underscores that the shares remain sensitive to headlines, but the trend is decisively upward.
The bull case rests on a simple thesis: AI infrastructure spending by hyperscalers and enterprises is so vast that it can absorb both a $4.5 billion quarterly China write-off and a single-product delay. Consensus analyst price targets average €263.32, implying roughly 42% upside from current levels. There are tentative signs of a thaw — Washington has begun issuing licenses again for the sale of H20 chips to China, though the process remains incremental and politically fragile.
The bear case, however, has two prongs. First, if the Kyber delay proves to be the first of several timeline slips in Nvidia's accelerated roadmap, competitors such as AMD and Google could gain a foothold. Second, broader AI investment sentiment may be cooling: Reuters reported in late June that OpenAI may delay its IPO until 2027 to protect a $1 trillion valuation, a move that investors could read as a cautionary signal for the entire sector. If the most prominent AI company hesitates to test public markets, Nvidia — as the sector's bellwether — remains vulnerable to a sentiment shift.
Nvidia at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The next major catalysts will come from outside Nvidia. Hyperscaler earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet are due in late July and will offer the first hard data on AI spending momentum. Nvidia itself reports at the end of August 2026. Until then, the stock's path of least resistance points toward €202.50, provided no further negative reports surface on either the Rubin timeline or the China front. A break below the 100-day moving average at €171.14 would signal a change in sentiment, but for now the market is giving Nvidia the benefit of the doubt on both fronts.
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