Nvidia's Stock Powers Past a Product Delay and a $4.5 Billion China Hit, Thanks to Insatiable AI Demand
Published on 07/14/2026 at 19:16 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Nvidia shares are scaling new heights even as the company juggles two seemingly contradictory headwinds: a setback in its next-generation chip timeline and a deepening loss of the Chinese market that once contributed billions in annual revenue. On Tuesday, the stock climbed 2.48% to EUR 183.28, bringing it within striking distance of its record high and reinforcing a narrative that geopolitics and technical hiccups are no match for the AI infrastructure boom.
The most immediate catalyst came from KeyBanc, whose analyst John Vinh raised his price target on Nvidia from $310 to $330, implying roughly 62% upside from current levels. Vinh reaffirmed an Overweight rating after returning from an Asia research trip where he saw robust demand for AI datacenters and a tightening market for memory components—prices for DRAM and NAND are rising, benefiting the entire semiconductor ecosystem.
Yet the upbeat analyst call coexists with a stark realignment in Nvidia's addressable market. Late last month, the U.S. government tightened export controls on advanced processors, requiring a license for any shipment of Nvidia's Blackwell-series chips to China or Macau. A further rule modification in early June extended that requirement to any company whose parent or headquarters is in China, closing a previous loophole that allowed Chinese firms to route purchases through foreign subsidiaries. The restrictions are the latest in a series that began in August 2022, and they have taken a serious bite out of Nvidia's revenue. The company recorded a $4.5 billion hit in a single quarter, after warning in April 2025 that the impact could reach $5.5 billion. CEO Jensen Huang described the Chinese market—once worth tens of billions of dollars annually—as effectively closed.
The market's reaction has been notably calm. Nvidia's stock ended Tuesday just 9.49% below its all-time high of EUR 202.50 set in mid-May, having traded as much as 10.73% off that peak earlier in the session. Over the past seven trading days, shares have gained 6.22%, and the stock sits 0.87% above its 50-day moving average. On a broader time frame, the picture is similarly resilient: Nvidia is up 12.22% year-to-date and 28.56% over the past twelve months. Technical indicators such as an RSI of 53.7 and an annualized volatility of 36.4% suggest a stock that is consolidating rather than overheating.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nvidia?
Investors appear to be betting that the explosive demand for AI hardware in markets outside China can more than compensate for the lost business. Nvidia's own guidance has already baked in the China exit—the company removed all datacenter revenue from China in its latest quarterly forecast, effectively writing off that market as a gone concern. That decision strips uncertainty from the numbers but confirms the magnitude of the shift.
Meanwhile, Nvidia is navigating a minor delay in its next-generation architecture, Vera Rubin. Thermal issues with the package lid and slower-than-expected qualification of SK Hynix's HBM4 memory have pushed mass shipments to July 2026, with the higher-performance Rubin Ultra variant not generating revenue until late 2027. Nvidia will fill the gap with additional B300 GPU deliveries, and KeyBanc sees the financial impact as minimal. The company has also locked up about 60% of TSMC's advanced CoWoS packaging capacity for 2026, and KeyBanc boosted its 2027 CoWoS supply estimate by 69% to 1.1 million interposers—insurance against future bottlenecks as rivals scramble for foundry resources.
Beyond GPUs, analysts at Wedbush are pointing to a new growth lever: Nvidia's Vera CPU platform, which boasts 1.8 times the performance of traditional x86 processors. They estimate the chip could generate around $20 billion in standalone revenue by 2026, expanding the company's addressable market well beyond accelerators.
Nvidia at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
At current levels, Nvidia trades at 23 times forward earnings, well below its historical average—a valuation that suggests the market is pricing in these risks but still sees a long runway. The company's first fiscal quarter of 2027 delivered $81.6 billion in revenue, up 85% year-over-year, with the datacenter segment contributing $75.2 billion. Next up, earnings are expected around August 26, 2026, when investors will be listening closely for updates on Rubin, capacity, and—to the extent it still matters—how Nvidia fills the void left by China.
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