OHB’s Blocked Billion-Euro Placement Exposes the Perils of a Paper-Thin Free Float

OHB finds itself in an unusual bind. The space and defence group’s operating business is surging, yet the capital markets are questioning its next growth step after a planned large-scale share placement was abruptly shelved. The resulting turmoil sent the stock on a wild ride that has little to do with the underlying fundamentals – and everything to do with a free float so narrow that even modest trades can trigger outsized moves.

On 27 May, OHB’s shares cratered by nearly 16% in a single session after the company hit pause on a proposed placement that, according to financial circles, would have exceeded €1 billion and represented roughly 20% of the company’s equity. The transaction would have reshaped the shareholder register: private equity firm KKR, which holds 29%, was expected to reduce its stake through the sale of existing shares, while the Fuchs family’s 65% position would have been diluted by new shares, thereby increasing the minuscule free float.

The underwriting syndicate had already been expanded to include Berenberg, Commerzbank, Jefferies and UniCredit, joining Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan. But with the brakes now applied, the question of how OHB will fund its ambitious expansion plans hangs over the stock.

Days before that crash, the stock had already exhibited extreme behaviour. Over a three-day stretch it slumped 25%, then bounced back 12% – all without any fresh corporate news. The last official release was the first-quarter results on 7 May, later supplemented by an ESA mission announcement on 21 May. The explanation lies in the company’s share structure: of roughly 19.15 million shares outstanding, only 1.09 million are in free float (5.68%), plus 62,000 treasury shares. That razor-thin liquidity amplifies every order.

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The price action on Thursday midday saw the stock at €457, down 2.1%, then recover to €474 the following morning, a gain of 1.5%. Market participants are effectively trading the float, not the company.

Yet the operational picture remains robust. In the first quarter, total output rose 15% to €279.3 million, adjusted EBITDA jumped 37% to €27.3 million, and net profit came in at €9.9 million versus €3.7 million a year earlier. The order book hit an all-time high of €3.35 billion as of 31 March, up 45% from the prior year’s €2.31 billion. The Space Systems division alone accounts for €2.68 billion of that backlog, underpinned by ESA programmes and rising European defence budgets.

Management has set ambitious medium-term targets: total output of €1.4 billion for 2026, rising to €1.7 billion in 2027 and more than €2.0 billion by 2028, with an EBITDA margin of 11%. Achieving those targets will require capital, which makes the placement hiccup all the more significant.

The next key dates will test whether OHB can shift the narrative back to its operational momentum. The virtual annual general meeting on 8 June is likely to see the board explain how it intends to cover the funding gap. On the agenda is also a new share option programme covering up to 576,447 rights, limited to 3% of share capital, for selected executives and employees. The authorisation would run until June 2031.

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Shortly after the AGM comes an operational milestone: Rocket Factory Augsburg, OHB’s launch subsidiary, has applied for a launch window starting 1 July for the maiden test flight of its RFA ONE rocket. The first and second stages have already been delivered to SaxaVord in Scotland. Historically, maiden flights of new launch systems succeed less than 30% of the time, so the event is both critical and risky. From 2028, RFA aims for up to 25 launches per year, opening a new growth avenue beyond the company’s traditional satellite and space business.

Until those events unfold, the stock is likely to remain a prisoner of its own structure. The next scheduled catalysts – the AGM, the RFA ONE test window, and second-quarter results on 6 August – will determine whether OHB can overlay its operational progress on the capital market uncertainty. For now, the 16% crash on 27 May is a stark reminder that even a record backlog cannot shield a company from the physics of a paper-thin float.

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