Oliver Burkhard Pushes Back on Capacity Questions as TKMS Locks In Canada and India Megadeals
Published on 07/18/2026 at 04:01 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Oliver Burkhard, chief executive of German naval shipbuilder TKMS, has moved to silence critics who question whether the company can handle the avalanche of new work headed its way. “It annoys me that doubts are being sown about us,” he told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung in an interview this week. Pressed on whether TKMS can juggle its swelling order book, Burkhard was blunt: “Of course we can do it. We can deliver everything we have planned.”
The pushback comes after Canada tapped TKMS as the preferred bidder for its Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP) in early July 2026, a deal covering up to twelve boats and valued at around €12 billion. The German offer bested South Korea’s Hanwha and its local partners Seaspan and Irving Shipbuilding, winning on design, cost efficiency and a commitment to local fabrication. The news initially sent TKMS shares as high as €93, but the stock later retreated to close the week at €80.70 — a modest 0.75% gain on the day. On a monthly basis the equity is still up 5.63%, and it has rallied 21.90% since the start of the year, though that leaves it 24.28% below a 52-week high of €106.58 reached last October.
India Looms as the Next Big Prize
Burkhard is already looking beyond Canada. He expects to finalise a contract with India by the end of 2026 for six submarines worth €8 billion. The negotiations have dragged on for 24 years and now involve contracts running to roughly 10,000 pages, with progress stalling recently because of energy-market disruption linked to the Iran conflict. New Delhi, meanwhile, is pushing to achieve defence-production self-sufficiency by 2047. If both deals come through, TKMS would have added two multibillion-euro projects on different continents within months.
TKMS’s existing order book already stands at about €20 billion — roughly ten times its annual revenue of €2.2 billion — and the company reckons that figure could double if the Canadian and potential frigate contracts are included. To handle the load, Burkhard points to the company’s yard in Wismar, which offers 550,000 square metres of dock space. TKMS is also exploring a cooperation deal with Spain’s Navantia. A separate cyberattack on the group, which came to light recently, has not disrupted operations, according to the CEO.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying TKMS?
A Frigate Programme Gathers Steam Alongside the Submarine Push
Submarines are only part of the story. Sweden’s Saab has received an order worth 8.7 billion Swedish kronor ($903.9 million) from TKMS to equip the new MEKO A-200 DEU frigates for the German navy with 9LV combat management systems, Sea Giraffe 4A and Sea Giraffe 1X radars and passive sensors. Deliveries are scheduled between 2029 and 2032, with options for additional vessels. The German parliament had already cleared €6.3 billion in funding for four frigates, while another €5.3 billion is on the table for four more. The first hull is due for handover in 2029.
The F126 frigate programme, however, has taken a twist that has shaken competitor Rheinmetall. Germany’s withdrawal from that project could cost Rheinmetall as much as €300 million in lost revenue, prompting target-price cuts from analysts. TKMS, by contrast, is seen as more resilient amid the shuffling of military procurement priorities.
Defence Spending Keeps the Sector in Flux
The wider backdrop remains supportive. Germany’s defence minister, Boris Pistorius, is pushing a tank acquisition worth up to €25 billion that would benefit Rheinmetall and KNDS, underscoring the political urgency behind military outlays. Across the broader economy, Germany’s factory order book rose 1.7% month-on-month in May and 9.5% year-on-year — the strongest annual gain since September 2021 — while the order backlog reached 8.9 months, its highest level since 2015. Economists have warned against reading too much into the figures, but the trend is clearly lifting sentiment.
TKMS at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Not every defence stock is riding the same wave. SMAG, a defence supplier that went public recently, saw its shares close roughly 42% below the offer price on its first day of trading, a reminder that investors remain selective. TKMS, with its twin submarine prospects and a growing frigate pipeline, appears to be carrying more conviction — even if the market wants proof that the company can execute at this scale.
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