Original-Research: CENIT AG (von GBC AG): Buy

Original-Research: CENIT AG - from GBC AG



15.04.2026 / 12:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of GBC AG to CENIT AG



     Company Name:                CENIT AG
     ISIN:                        DE0005407100



     Reason for the research:     Research Study (Anno)
     Recommendation:              Buy
     Target price:                EUR 16.00
     Target price on sight of:    31.12.2026
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Cosmin Filker; Marcel Goldmann



Focus on improving profitability likely to characterise the current
financial year, earnings turnaround in sight



In the 2025 financial year, CENIT AG achieved a slight increase in revenue
of 1.1% to EUR209.51 million (previous year: EUR207.33 million), thereby
slightly exceeding the company forecast adjusted at the half-year 2025.
Growth was primarily driven by inorganic expansion through the first-time
full consolidation of Analysis Prime, whilst organic growth saw a slight
decline. Difficult market conditions, particularly in the automotive and
mechanical engineering sectors, which are key for the company, prevented a
stronger revenue performance.



At the product group level, there is a clear structural shift towards
higher-margin revenue streams. Revenue from proprietary software once again
showed particularly dynamic growth, rising by 11.2% to EUR21.42 million
(previous year: EUR19.27 million) and recording a significant growth spurt,
particularly in the fourth quarter. The consulting and services business
also grew by 2.4% to EUR87.41 million (previous year: EUR85.34 million),
attributable in part to the contribution from Analysis Prime. By contrast,
revenue in the traditionally high-volume third-party software business fell
by 2.3% to EUR100.26 million, reflecting the continued reluctance to invest.



Despite the gross profit margin improving to 60.1% (previous year: 58.8%),
earnings performance was significantly impacted by exceptional expenses of
around EUR4.0 million incurred as part of the "Project Performance"
restructuring programme. In addition, Analysis Prime reported a net loss
after tax of EUR2.0 million. Consequently, EBITDA fell significantly to EUR12.28
million (previous year: EUR17.26 million). However, the momentum during the
year is to be viewed positively, as initial efficiency gains were already
becoming apparent, particularly in the second half of the year. Depreciation
and amortisation (including impairment losses on Analysis Prime's customer
base) further weighed on EBIT, which fell to EUR0.31 million (previous year:
EUR7.38 million). Worth noting is the sharp rise in operating cash flow to
EUR14.13 million (previous year: EUR10.34 million), which was used to
significantly reduce bank debt.



The basis for future development is a significantly increased order book
(+15.3% to EUR93.5 million), a stronger focus on larger and higher-margin
projects, and an optimised sales structure. In addition, structural trends
such as cloud migration, rising recurring revenue and the growing importance
of AI-supported solutions are providing further growth momentum. At the same
time, management remains cautious due to external uncertainties and
continued volatility in investment appetite. For the current financial year,
CENIT AG anticipates revenue of at least EUR210 million and EBITDA of at least
EUR18 million.



Our estimates are slightly higher, and we expect revenue to rise to EUR214.74
million and a significant improvement in EBITDA to EUR19.13 million. For the
following years, we anticipate accelerated revenue growth of 6% per annum
and a gradual expansion of the EBITDA margin to over 10%. This will be
driven by economies of scale, the elimination of one-off effects and
efficiency gains.



Management Change at CENIT AG: CEO Peter Schneck is stepping down from his
position effective April 30, 2026, by mutual agreement with the Supervisory
Board, after having played a key role since 2022 in driving the company's
international expansion and growth strategy (including eight acquisitions)
as well as increasing revenue to EUR209.5 million. Effective May 1, 2026,
Martin Thiel, the current COO, will assume the CEO position, ensuring
continuity in the strategic realignment. At the same time, the company is
placing greater emphasis on areas such as profitability, consolidation, and
operational excellence, particularly in light of the planned transition to
the Scale segment of the stock exchange.



Using the DCF valuation model, we have determined a target price of EUR16.00
(previously: EUR15.00). We maintain our BUY rating.





You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=8b926e6fc2ae636d90ee8afcdd044c35



Contact for questions:
Contact for questions:
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
++++++++++++++++
Disclosure of potential conflicts of interest pursuant to Section 85 WpHG
and Art. 20 MAR The company analysed above has the following potential
conflict of interest: (5a,6a,7,11); A catalogue of potential conflicts of
interest can be found at: https://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung.htm
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Date (time) Completion: 15.04.2026 (08:12 am)
Date (time) first transmission: 15.04.2026 (12:00 pm)



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2308510 15.04.2026 CET/CEST