Original-Research: Semperit AG Holding (von NuWays AG): BUY

Original-Research: Semperit AG Holding - from NuWays AG



13.10.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to Semperit AG Holding



     Company Name:                Semperit AG Holding
     ISIN:                        AT0000785555



     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                EUR 23.50
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Sarah Hellemann



Second guidance hike carried by strong Q3 operating EBITDA; PT up



Yesterday, Semperit announced another guidance hike, carried by a
stronger-than-anticipated operating EBITDA for Q3. In detail:



Q3 EBITDA well ahead of expectations. Semperit reported preliminary Q3
EBITDA of c. EUR 27m, up 26.5% yoy and well above our estimate of EUR 18.8m. The
beat was mainly driven by stronger sales. Pricing normalised more slowly
than expected as the company defended its margins in customer negotiations,
and material costs weighed less on the P&L than anticipated. Adjusting for
project costs of c. EUR 1m (eNuW), operating EBITDA should come in at c. EUR 28m
(eNuW).



Impairment weighs on EBIT. Alongside the preliminary figures, Semperit
announced a one-off, non-cash impairment of c. EUR 8m related to assets and
liabilities now classified as held for sale. The stronger operating
performance should partly offset this charge, but we still expect Q3 EBIT of
EUR 6.6m (eNuW), down 28% yoy.



FY26 guidance raised for the second time. On the back of the strong Q3,
Semperit now guides for FY26 operating EBITDA of c. EUR 115m. That is EUR 15m
above the c. EUR 100m it guided in July and EUR 20m above its original guidance
of EUR 95m. Notably, management flagged limited visibility on order intake for
the final weeks of the year, as many customers continue to order at short
notice.



Q4 also set to beat. The new guidance implies Q4 operating EBITDA of some EUR
18m, above our previous estimate of EUR 16.7m. In our view, this signals that
management expects better outcomes from negotiations than we had assumed,
which should support both sales and margins. We now model Q4 sales of EUR 198m
(previously EUR 193m), up 10.7% yoy, and an operating EBITDA margin of 9.1%
(previously 8.6%), down 6.2pp yoy against a strong comparable margin.



Estimates raised. Reflecting the stronger Q3 and a higher Q4 contribution of
EUR 18.1m (eNuW), we raise our FY26e operating EBITDA to EUR 115m (previously EUR
105m). The Q3 impairment weighs on EBIT, but the stronger operating
performance more than offsets it. We now expect FY26e EBIT of EUR 52.4m
(previously EUR 50.5m).



Exceptional year in the making. FY26e is shaping up to be an exceptionally
strong year, with the highest earnings since FY21 and, based on our FY26e
EPS of EUR 1.51, a resumption of dividend payments. Part of this strength
comes from windfall profits related to raw material price volatility and is
therefore one-off in nature. Still, with a leaner cost base and a second
guidance raise within a few months, Semperit's turnaround is clearly gaining
traction.



BUY confirmed, PT raised to EUR 23.5 (previously EUR 22) based on DCF.



You can download the research here:
https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=f0f8a5a2b4adb4bace7d7f347bfa2bf1
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research



Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2414520 13.10.2026 CET/CEST