Palantir's Two-Front War: European Politics and a 190x Earnings Multiple
Published on 04/28/2026 at 21:32 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers tell one story. The market tells another. And now, European governments are writing a third chapter that Palantir Technologies cannot afford to ignore.
When the company reports first-quarter results on May 4, it will do so with a share price roughly 33% below its 52-week high — despite booking 398 net new orders in a single quarter and posting 137% growth in its US business. The disconnect between operational momentum and market sentiment has rarely been wider.
The European Hurdle
Just as Palantir's international expansion was gathering steam, political pushback in two key European capitals threatens to slow the narrative. In Germany, the Bundeswehr has effectively frozen new contracts with the US data analytics firm. Thomas Daum, who leads the country's cyber defense operations, told Handelsblatt that granting industrial companies access to national databases is currently off the table.
Across the North Sea, a potentially lucrative deal with the London Metropolitan Police — valued in the tens of millions of pounds — is teetering. London Mayor Sadiq Khan has signaled his opposition, with his office indicating it will block any procurement exceeding £500,000 that conflicts with the city's values.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Palantir?
These developments cast a shadow over what should be a straightforward growth story. Palantir's management has guided for full-year 2026 revenue of approximately $7.19 billion, underpinned by US commercial growth of at least 115%. But the European headwinds raise questions about whether that trajectory is achievable without the international segment pulling its weight.
What the Numbers Need to Show
The consensus among analysts calls for first-quarter revenue of $1.5385 billion and earnings per share of $0.29 — more than double the year-ago figure. Palantir itself has guided for around $1.534 billion. The company has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last ten quarters, so expectations are high.
Morgan Stanley's Sanjit Singh described Palantir as one of the strongest growth stories in software, noting that a moderate acceleration and an upward revision to full-year guidance are possible. But he also flagged the valuation: the stock trades at roughly 190 times adjusted earnings. Even with projected annual earnings growth of 57% through 2027, there is almost no room for disappointment.
The US commercial segment will be the focal point. If revenue there exceeds $550 million and the Rule-of-40 metric stays above 110, a re-rating toward $160 could materialize. Miss those marks, and the bears will have their ammunition — with the support zone around $120 to $125 under immediate threat.
Bulls, Bears, and Insider Signals
The battle lines are clearly drawn. Michael Burry holds put options with strike prices of $50 through June 2027 and $100 through December 2026. In a since-deleted social media post, he argued that Anthropic is eating Palantir's lunch — a claim that alone triggered a 13.7% weekly decline. Wedbush's Dan Ives dismissed the thesis as a fictional narrative.
On the other side, ARK Invest bought roughly 85,500 Palantir shares in April, worth about $11.15 million, spread across several funds. CEO Alex Karp also stepped up, purchasing nearly 1.5 million shares between January and April — a vote of confidence that market watchers have noted.
But insider selling tells a different story. Over the past three months, company insiders have offloaded approximately $433 million worth of stock, with sales occurring at progressively lower prices.
Palantir at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The Valuation Tightrope
At current levels around €120, the stock sits just below its 50-day moving average of €123.81, with a relative strength index of 40.6 — suggesting tension but not panic. The forward price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 stands at 111, a level that demands near-perfect execution.
A $300 million contract with the US Department of Agriculture provides some ballast. But investors will be looking for details on how that deal fits into the broader picture, particularly as European headwinds mount.
The May 4 report will do more than set the tone for Palantir. It will shape how the entire AI software sector is valued through mid-May. For a company trading at 190 times earnings, there is simply no room for surprises — especially not the political kind.
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