Plug Power’s Barrow Green Light Hides a Cash Story That Won’t Go Quiet

The final investment decision for Plug Power’s Barrow Green Hydrogen project in Cumbria marks the first time a British scheme in its three-site pipeline has moved into construction. For a company that has spent years promising European deployment, the 30-megawatt electrolyser order from the Green Hydrogen Energy Company (GHECO) joint venture — backed by Schroders Greencoat and Carlton Power — offers a tangible proof point. The facility will feed Kimberly-Clark’s local plant, displacing as much as half its natural gas use and cutting 18,300 tonnes of CO? annually through roughly 100 GWh of green hydrogen each year.

The milestone comes on the back of a first quarter that beat expectations. Revenue rose 22% year-on-year to $163.5 million, powered by a near-quadrupling of electrolyser platform sales. Management is holding to full-year guidance of 13–15% top-line growth and still expects to turn EBITDA-positive in the fourth quarter. But the stock, trading around €2.89, has not rewarded the momentum — it sits 14% lower on the week, reflecting a market that is paying more attention to the gap between revenue growth and cash generation.

Plug Power ended March with $802 million in liquidity, including restricted cash. That cushion is being buttressed by a series of tactical moves: a $39.2 million transfer of investment tax credits and a $142 million transaction with Stream Data Centers. Yet the balance sheet remains a constraint. Roughly 60% of the year’s projected revenue is weighted to the second half, leaving little room for error as the company works to close the profitability gap.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Plug Power?

Wall Street’s view is split down the middle. B. Riley Securities keeps a buy rating with a $5 price target, while TD Cowen upgraded its target to $3 but holds at neutral. BMO Capital sticks with underperform. The average of 22 analyst ratings lands at “hold,” with a consensus price target that now trails the current share price — a sign that the market has already priced in considerable operational improvement.

The immediate calendar offers little respite. On May 28, Plug Power presents at the Craig-Hallum conference, followed by its virtual annual general meeting on June 11. Both events will be scrutinised for updates on margins, order flow, and the path to positive EBITDA. The Barrow project may have cleared its final hurdle, but the next test — sustaining liquidity without diluting shareholders — is just as steep.

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