Political Resistance Fades, but Commerzbank Investors Stick with Independence Bet
Published on 07/16/2026 at 13:45 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Chancellor Friedrich Merz has thrown the Commerzbank takeover saga into a new phase with a single statement. “We are not blocking this merger,” Merz said in Berlin on Wednesday, effectively opening the door for UniCredit to pursue a full combination. The comment landed as Commerzbank shares traded at €38.07, just 2.83% below a 52-week high of €39.18, and less than three weeks before the bank is due to report second-quarter earnings on August 6.
UniCredit now holds 47.6% of Commerzbank’s outstanding shares after the acceptance deadline for its tender offer, and controls 49.65% of the voting rights. The Italian lender is technically still short of a majority, but the political signal from Berlin has reshuffled the deck. Until now, the German government — which retains a roughly 12% stake — had been a vocal opponent of a hostile tie-up. Merz’s remarks do not mean the deal is sealed: he also added that the government does not approve of the manner in which Commerzbank has been “attacked.” That leaves the door open for talks, but the precise terms remain undefined.
The market, meanwhile, is pricing in a very different story. Commerzbank’s stock is trading well above the offer price, and the acceptance rate from independent investors tells its own tale. Fewer than 2% of shares held by institutional and private investors were tendered, a figure the Commerzbank board has seized on as proof that UniCredit’s bid lacks appeal. The bank’s own “Momentum” strategy, launched in February 2025, has doubled the share price and delivered a record 2025 — the best in its 156-year history. A confirmed outlook for 2026 and medium-term targets through 2030 provide a fundamental anchor that analysts say justifies the premium.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Commerzbank?
Technically, the stock is in a healthy uptrend. The relative strength index sits at 54.3, neutral territory, while the price stands 2.63% above its 50-day moving average and more than 10% above its 200-day average. The longer-term picture is even stronger: shares have gained over 33% in the past twelve months and are more than 34% above the 52-week low. The chart suggests that momentum, not merger anxiety, has been the dominant force.
Yet the bear case rests on a structural shift that has already occurred. With 49.65% of voting rights — even before regulatory clearance allows UniCredit to exercise physical control over the tendered shares — the Italian bank commands de facto influence over shareholder meetings. Some observers argue that this amounts to control over the largest European bank merger in nearly two decades, regardless of whether the official approvals have landed. The process itself is slow: UniCredit acknowledges that voting rights will only transfer once it takes physical custody of the shares, a step that could take months. But the direction of travel is clear.
Another layer of uncertainty comes from Berlin. If the government’s softening stance leads to a negotiated solution without a materially improved offer for Commerzbank’s shareholders, the fair-value debate could become more volatile. The Commerzbank itself has criticised UniCredit’s plans as vague and high-risk, questioning whether the promised synergies are achievable. A separate legal risk was defused on July 9, when the Frankfurt public prosecutor’s office declined to open a market-manipulation investigation, finding no reasonable evidence. That clears one cloud, but the underlying ownership ambiguity persists — Commerzbank has pointed to an unusual spike in securities lending ahead of the tender deadline, raising questions about the true economic beneficiaries of some positions.
Volatility remains elevated at 22.14% on a 30-day annualised basis, and events are likely to drive further swings. The next milestone is the second-quarter report on August 6. If Commerzbank delivers numbers that confirm the pace of its organic recovery, the independence narrative will gain additional credibility. If the results disappoint or the political situation shifts decisively toward UniCredit, the stock could test the upper end of its recent range — or face a sharp repricing. For now, the market is keeping faith with the stand-alone story, but Merz’s words have ensured that the summer will be anything but quiet.
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