Rheinmetall’s €60.5 Million Truck Order Offers a Glimmer, but Budget Cuts and a Fregatten Shock Loom Large
Published on 07/28/2026 at 11:21 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Rheinmetall shares have clawed back some ground in recent weeks, but the Düsseldorf-based defence group remains caught between a steady stream of Bundeswehr orders and mounting headwinds from Berlin’s shifting procurement priorities. The latest contract — 56 Elefant-2 heavy transporters worth €60.5 million — lifted the stock 2.5 percent on Monday to €1,059.80, adding to a seven-day gain of 5.81 percent and a monthly advance of nearly 9 percent. Yet the relief rally has done little to erase the scars of a brutal first half.
The stock now trades at €1,073.40, up 1.28 percent on Tuesday, but remains almost 47 percent below the October 2025 record of €2,007. The 52-week low of €902.50 was set only recently, and the shares are still roughly 5 percent shy of their 50-day moving average at €1,114.76. Since the start of the year, Rheinmetall has shed 30.86 percent of its value — a decline that reflects far more than a single cancelled frigate programme.
That programme, the F126 frigate project, was scrapped by the defence ministry in late June after Rheinmetall had positioned itself as a saviour through its March acquisition of the NVL shipyard group. The stock plunged 18.7 percent in a single session, wiping more than €8 billion from the company’s market capitalisation. Rheinmetall subsequently shelved plans to create roughly 1,000 jobs in its naval division, while Dutch rival Damen has filed a lawsuit against the German government over the collapsed deal.
The budget blow did not stop there. Berlin’s 2027 draft budget, reported by Bloomberg on Monday, allocates only €9.6 billion for ammunition procurement — €1.4 billion less than the €11 billion pencilled in for 2026. Of that total, €7.7 billion comes from the core defence budget and €1.9 billion from the Bundeswehr’s special fund. The overall defence budget for 2027 stands at €109.7 billion. While Germany’s total defence spending is still set to rise through 2030, the priorities are shifting unmistakably toward drones, air defence and digital warfare at the expense of conventional artillery shells — the very segment that has been the engine of Rheinmetall’s growth story.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rheinmetall?
The company is not standing still. In Zurich-Oerlikon, Rheinmetall is building what it calls one of the world’s most advanced air defence systems — the Skyranger and Skynex platforms. Switzerland is planning to spend roughly $992 million on such systems, and Austria has ordered 36 Skyranger-30 turrets. Rheinmetall is ramping up production capacity in Oerlikon from 70-100 turrets a year to 400, signalling that air defence demand could partially offset the ammunition slowdown. In naval shipbuilding, Rheinmetall remains the sole bidder for German Naval Yards Kiel after rival TKMS withdrew from the process.
The Bundeswehr’s latest truck order, meanwhile, stems from a framework agreement signed in 2018 for up to 137 vehicles. The contract has now been extended beyond its original seven-year term due to rising demand, with deliveries scheduled for 2026 and 2027. It is the latest in a long string of Bundeswehr orders that have kept Rheinmetall’s factories busy, though analysts caution that such deals are unlikely to move the needle on the share price.
What will matter is the second-quarter earnings report due in early August. Deutsche Bank has cut its price target from €2,100 to €1,800 but maintained a “Buy” rating, arguing that the upcoming numbers should confirm an acceleration in revenue growth. Berenberg lowered its target from €1,750 to €1,600, also keeping a “Buy”, while Bernstein held its €1,900 target with an “Outperform” rating. Of the 27 analysts covering the stock, 23 recommend buying and four advise holding.
Rheinmetall at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The market capitalisation now stands at roughly €48 billion — a far cry from the €4.2 billion valuation before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That gap underscores just how much of the current share price still rests on the broader European rearmament dynamic, even as the near-term narrative has turned more cautious. Whether the pivot toward drones and air defence can fully compensate for the slowdown in artillery ammunition remains the defining question for investors in the quarters ahead.
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