Rheinmetall’s Bear Market Defies a Blizzard of Orders: Can Jefferies’ Bullish Bet Be Right?
Published on 07/10/2026 at 11:33 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The contradiction at the heart of Rheinmetall has seldom been starker. While the German defence group continues to reel off multi-billion-euro contract wins — laser weapons, joint ventures, rocket production and record artillery deals — its shares have tumbled to within a whisker of their 52-week low. The stock recently changed hands at €997.00, leaving it down 37.75% since the start of 2026 and more than 49% below the all-time high of €1,995 struck in September 2025.
Against that backdrop, Jefferies has reaffirmed its conviction. On 10 July, analyst Chloe Lemarie maintained a “Buy” rating and a €1,300 price target, implying upside of more than 30% from current levels. Rheinmetall, alongside Leonardo and Rolls-Royce, is considered one of the investment bank’s favoured names in the European defence sector, with Lemarie pointing to the group’s commanding position in military electronics.
The technical picture, however, tells a bleaker story. The stock is now 34.33% below its 200-day moving average and 14.09% beneath the 50-day line. The relative strength index stands at 37.5, just above oversold territory but signalling persistent selling pressure. With 30-day annualised volatility running at 68.78%, the market is clearly on edge.
From Pipeline to Profit — the Market Wants Proof
The sheer volume of recent orders is extraordinary. On 9 July, Rheinmetall signed into a consortium to develop a high-energy laser weapon system for the German Navy, a contract in the mid three-digit million euro range with operational capability planned by 2029. The previous day it announced a joint venture with Croatia’s DOK-ING aimed at making that country a hub for unmanned defence technologies. And on 7 July came a memorandum of understanding with Lockheed Martin to produce the ATACMS missile system outside the United States for the first time, at Rheinmetall’s Unterlüß site.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rheinmetall?
None of this has arrested the slide. In fact, the stock dropped 1.33% on the day of the laser announcement alone. The market, it seems, has shifted its focus from headline-grabbing order intake to the messy business of execution. A laser that will not be fielded until 2029 generates no revenue today. A Croatian joint venture will take years to reach production scale. Even the €5.7 billion Romanian artillery contract — the largest single international order in the company’s recent history — will trickle into the income statement only over several reporting periods.
A New Rival Emerges in the Home Market
While Rheinmetall wrestles with this investor scepticism, its domestic competitive landscape is shifting. On 9 July, the Deutz AG announced the acquisition of Flensburger Fahrzeugbau (FFG) for roughly €1.6 billion. The deal catapults Deutz into the position of Germany’s third-largest armoured vehicle manufacturer, behind only KNDS and Rheinmetall. FFG specialises in tracked vehicles and support platforms, and the move marks Deutz’s aggressive expansion out of its traditional engine business and directly into Rheinmetall’s core segment.
Still, Rheinmetall’s order book retains formidable ballast. The Boxer 8×8 wheeled armoured vehicle, produced through the ARTEC consortium, has racked up more than 2,000 global orders. The British contract alone calls for 623 vehicles worth £2.8 billion, and the Czech Republic is evaluating the Boxer as a replacement for its ageing Pandur fleet. That pipeline, combined with sustained NATO purchasing intent — underscored by the recent Ankara summit and Germany’s planned acquisition of US Tomahawk cruise missiles — provides a solid fundamental floor.
Awaiting the Earnings Test
The disconnect between operational momentum and stock price has become the defining feature of Rheinmetall’s equity story. With a market capitalisation of €51.81 billion, the group remains one of Europe’s largest defence plays, but the share price is just 10.47% above the 52-week low of €902.50 set on 25 June. The 30-day RSI has inched up to 38.6 in secondary readings, yet selling pressure has not relented.
Rheinmetall at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
What investors are demanding now is tangible evidence that the order mountain is translating into higher margins and free cash flow. Rheinmetall is simultaneously scaling 155-mm artillery ammunition capacity towards 1.5 million rounds a year by 2030 while investing in lasers, drones, rockets and joint ventures. The market wants to see whether those outlays will compress returns or widen them.
Jefferies is betting on the latter. Whether the earnings season ahead delivers the proof needed to close the gap between a €997 share price and a €1,300 target will determine if the bull case stands on more than hope.
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