Rheinmetall's Bid to Scale Up Lasers and Drones Fails to Offset Profitability Fears as Stock Sinks Below €1,000
Published on 07/12/2026 at 08:54 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Rheinmetall closed Friday at €993.00, slipping back under the psychologically important €1,000 mark after a 1.90% daily decline. The loss is the latest chapter in a broader retreat that has erased 46.25% from the share price over twelve months and 38% since the start of the year. Yet during the same week, the defence group announced no fewer than five major orders — a disconnect between operational momentum and market sentiment that has left analysts and investors guessing.
The most eye-catching deal came on July 9, when Rheinmetall signed a contract to supply a high-energy laser weapon system to the German Navy. The contract, valued in the mid-hundreds of millions of euros, covers the full kill chain — surveillance, target tracking, and engagement of air, sea and land threats. The system is being developed in a joint venture with MBDA Deutschland and is expected to be operational by 2029. Rheinmetall stressed that the entire supply chain is German, ensuring national sovereignty over what it describes as a key technology.
That order is part of a broader flurry of announcements. On July 10, Kuwait ordered MASS decoy launchers for eight ships, a low-double-digit million euro deal with a further high-single-digit million contract for ammunition. Two days earlier, Rheinmetall signed a letter of intent with Lockheed Martin to jointly produce ATACMS missiles in Europe, with a centre planned in UnterlĂĽĂź. On the same day, an unnamed NATO state placed an order for 155mm artillery ammunition destined for Ukraine, worth a mid-double-digit million sum. And on July 8, a strategic industrial partnership with Croatia was unveiled, including a new joint venture focused on unmanned vehicles.
For all the drumbeat of wins, the stock continues to slide. On a weekly basis the loss stands at 9.48%, while over 30 days the decline has reached 16.96%. The current price is 50.23% below the 52-week high of €1,995.00 recorded on September 29, 2025, and only about 10% above the year’s low of €902.50 hit on June 25.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rheinmetall?
Much of the damage reflects a sector-wide repricing. Together with Renk and Hensoldt, Rheinmetall has seen roughly €58 billion in market capitalisation evaporate as investors reassess the outlook for legacy defence contractors. Analysts point to shifting military priorities, new technologies, and a growing gap between order books and actual profit generation as the core concerns.
A tangible blow came from the German defence ministry’s decision to cancel the multibillion-euro F126 frigate programme, which could cost Rheinmetall up to €300 million in lost revenue. That setback dented confidence in the company’s naval ambitions and prompted MWB Research to slash its price target from €1,400 to €1,150. Jefferies, by contrast, maintained a buy recommendation on July 10 with a €1,300 target, well above the current level.
Technically, the stock looks stretched. The RSI at 37.2 points to an oversold condition, but the bearish structure remains intact: Rheinmetall trades 15.05% below its 50-day moving average of €1,168.88 and 34.59% below its 200-day average of €1,518.21. Annualised 30-day volatility stands at 68.77%, underscoring the market’s nervousness.
Rheinmetall at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The next catalyst arrives on August 6, when Rheinmetall reports second-quarter results. After a strong first quarter, the company flagged further growth in revenue and order intake — a promise the recent deal flow appears to back up. The question is whether the market will finally give it credit. Closing the gap between booked orders and converted earnings will be the only thing that can arrest the slide, and the laser, missile, and drone programmes now in the pipeline will need to start showing up in the bottom line sooner rather than later.
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