Rheinmetall's Slump Continues: MWB and Berenberg Pare Price Targets as Market Rethinks Defence Spending
Published on 07/10/2026 at 17:43 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Rheinmetall's shares have fallen to within striking distance of their 52-week low, trading at €987.20 after a 2.3% decline on the day. The stock now sits just 9.4% above the €902.50 trough reached on 25 June, an uncomfortably narrow cushion for a company that has been announcing blockbuster deals at a furious pace. The latest leg down was triggered by two analyst downgrades that underscore a deepening unease about whether Europe’s defence darlings can turn political commitments into real earnings.
MWB Research’s Jens-Peter Rieck removed his buy recommendation and slashed the target price to €1,150, citing a shift in NATO’s procurement priorities. The alliance has pledged €70 billion in military aid to Ukraine this year and committed to maintaining that level from 2027, but Rieck argues that the money is increasingly flowing toward air defence, long-range weapons, drones and surveillance — areas where Rheinmetall is less dominant. At Berenberg, analyst George McWhirter lowered his target to €1,600 from €1,750, though he kept his buy rating. The culprit here is the recent cancellation of the F-126 frigate project by the German government, a decision that continues to weigh on the stock. Rheinmetall lost roughly 5% on Wednesday alone, underperforming a weak broader market.
None of this is happening in a vacuum of bad news. If anything, the order book has rarely looked healthier. In the past two weeks alone, Rheinmetall signed a contract for a high-energy laser weapon system for the German navy (mid-triple-digit million euros), formed a joint venture with Croatia’s DOK-ING to build unmanned defence technology, and agreed with Lockheed Martin to produce ATACMS rockets outside the US at its Unterlüß facility. A €5.7 billion Romanian artillery order in June was the biggest international package in recent history, while the company continues to expand 155mm ammunition capacity toward 1.5 million rounds annually by 2030.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rheinmetall?
Yet the market is increasingly asking whether order intake and profit are the same thing. The answer, for now, is no. Laser weapons will not be operational until 2029, the Croatian JV will take years to reach production, and even the Romanian award will be delivered over many reporting periods. In the meantime, Rheinmetall is spending heavily on capacity expansion, supply chains remain under strain, and the free cash flow that investors crave is being deferred. The narrative that drove the stock to a record €1,995 in September 2025 — pure political tailwind — has given way to a more sceptical calculus.
That scepticism is reflected in the technical picture. The RSI has fallen to 36.7, approaching oversold territory but without generating a convincing reversal signal. The shares trade 15.5% below their 50-day moving average and nearly 35% below the 200-day line, confirming a well-entrenched downtrend. Annualised 30-day volatility is hovering near 69%, a level that warns of large swings in either direction. Since the start of 2025, the stock has lost 38.4%, and over the past twelve months the decline deepens to 46.6%.
The next major catalyst will be the half-year results, where management must prove it can resolve the well-known delivery bottlenecks for ammunition and military trucks. Only then will investors be able to judge whether operational execution can close the gap between a pipeline of billion-euro contracts and the share price that refuses to acknowledge them.
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Rheinmetall Stock: New Analysis - 10 July
Fresh Rheinmetall information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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