Rheinmetall's Three-Front Offensive in Lasers, Kuwait and Croatia Fails to Break the Sector Drag
Published on 07/11/2026 at 20:45 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The DĂŒsseldorf-based defence group has strung together a trio of operational wins over the past 48 hours, yet its stock continues to bleed value. Rheinmetall secured a high-energy laser weapon contract for the German Navy with MBDA Deutschland, won its first Kuwaiti order for the Multi Ammunition Softkill System, and expanded an unmanned-vehicle footprint in Croatia. None of it moved the share price. On Friday the stock closed at âŹ993.00, down 1.90%, marking a new low in a sell-off that has now knocked 38% off the stock since the start of the year.
The slide goes far beyond Rheinmetall alone. Together with Renk and Hensoldt, the three largest publicly traded German defence companies have shed roughly âŹ58 billion in market capitalisation. Even the NATO summit in Ankara and a string of fresh contract announcements have failed to stem the broader rout. Analysts point to a shifting security landscape â new technologies and a reordering of global threat perceptions are pressuring the traditional revenue models that had driven defence stocks higher. Rheinmetallâs own market cap now stands at approximately âŹ49.5 billion, a far cry from the levels seen last autumn.
A specific overhang has added to the pressure. The cancellation of the F126 frigate programme is expected to cost Rheinmetall up to âŹ300 million in lost revenue, according to reports. Research house MWB Research responded by slashing its price target from âŹ1,400 to âŹ1,150, noting that the setback undermines confidence in the groupâs naval ambitions. CEO Armin Papperger had expressed optimism about the partnership with Damen on the project, but the market clearly does not share that view.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rheinmetall?
Against this bleak backdrop, Rheinmetallâs recent deal flow looks impressive on paper. The laser contract, awarded late Thursday by the Federal Office of Bundeswehr Equipment, Information Technology and In-Service Support, is valued in the mid-hundreds of millions of euros. Rheinmetall and MBDA are forming a joint venture called âARGE HELâ to deliver a shipborne drone-defence system by 2029. Roman Koehne, a Rheinmetall executive, stressed the systemâs high maturity after successful tests aboard the frigate SACHSEN. The Kuwait deal, announced Friday, equips eight Al-Dorra-class vessels with the MASS decoy launcher â a low-double-digit million contract, plus ammunition in the high single-digit millions, with deliveries running into the second quarter of 2029. Separately, the company submitted a bid on 8 July for a long-term partnership in Croatia, aiming to turn its âRheinmetall Unmanned Vehiclesâ site into a European hub for robotics and drone systems.
Operationally, Rheinmetall is also laying groundwork for future platforms. Together with US partners, it plans to manufacture Patriot GEM-T interceptor missiles in Germany, with first deliveries expected in 2027. A new MGCS Project Company GmbH in Cologne has been established to develop next-generation land systems. Yet all these long-cycle projects are doing nothing to arrest the near-term decline in the stock.
Technically, the picture is deteriorating. The breach of the âŹ1,000 support level has opened the door to further downside. The year low of âŹ902.50, set on 25 June, now sits just 10% below the current price. If that level gives way, chartists see unfilled gaps at âŹ880 and âŹ830 as the next targets. The 200-day moving average, at âŹ1,518.21, is far above and confirms the bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index at 37.2 suggests an oversold condition, but the month-on-month volatility of nearly 69% underscores that nervousness remains the dominant sentiment.
Political appeals have not shifted the mood. Manfred Weber, leader of the European People's Party, used a speech on 11 July to renew his call for a European army and a single defence market. Those are structural ambitions that would take years to materialise, while Rheinmetallâs immediate test comes on 6 August with its quarterly report. For now, the market is asking one question: can the stock hold above the June low, or are the gaps at âŹ880 and âŹ830 the next stepping stones in a prolonged correction?
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