Rocket Lab Slides as Investors Reprice the Space Story
Published on 07/17/2026 at 05:01 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Rocket Lab’s latest setback is less about a single bad day than a sharp reset in expectations. The stock finished Thursday at EUR58.90, after dropping 11.43 percent on the day, and is now down 17 percent over the week and almost 35 percent over the past 30 days. From its 52-week high of EUR133.80 on 27 May, the share price has lost 55.98 percent.
The move came even as Rocket Lab posted two fresh operating milestones. The company said its VICTUS-HAZE mission for the US Space Force was a complete success, with launch, satellite delivery and rapid in-orbit manoeuvres all executed under one contract. It also reported a full second-stage propulsion test for the Neutron rocket, the reusable launcher that is central to the company’s next phase of growth.
Still, the market appears to be looking past the headlines. Investors have focused instead on Rocket Lab’s planned acquisition of Iridium Communications, a deal announced at the end of June and valued at roughly USD54 per Iridium share. Iridium holders are due to receive USD27 in cash plus Rocket Lab shares under a fixed exchange ratio. That mix has raised concerns about financing, debt and dilution, even though the transaction is also being framed as a way to build out Rocket Lab’s satellite and communications platform.
The stock’s recent slide has been severe. By mid-July, Rocket Lab had fallen on six consecutive trading days, with a cumulative decline of 23.6 percent that translated into about USD14 billion of market value. On 16 July alone, the shares dropped more than 12 percent to their lowest level since 13 April, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.83 percent and the S&P 500 fell 0.24 percent. The broader space sector was hit harder than the market as a whole.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rocket Lab?
Analysts say the pressure is not tied to one company-specific failure. Some attribute the weakness to profit-taking after SpaceX’s recent Nasdaq listing, while others point to a wider rotation out of high-growth space names. AST SpaceMobile also came under pressure, losing 13 percent after announcing a USD1 billion convertible bond sale and amid takeover rumours in the launch segment.
Wall Street is clearly split on how to value Rocket Lab from here. Piper Sandler recently initiated coverage with a Neutral rating and a USD83 price target, arguing that vertically integrated launch players such as SpaceX and Rocket Lab are well positioned over the long term. At the same time, the firm said the better risk-reward over the next 12 months lies with AST SpaceMobile. Its view is that Rocket Lab is “no secret” anymore and already trades at a valuation premium to SpaceX. Piper’s USD83 target is based on 39 times expected 2027 revenue.
Morgan Stanley is notably more upbeat. On 8 July, it lifted its bull-case target from USD185 to USD293 and reaffirmed an Overweight rating, with a base case of USD105. In its view, Rocket Lab is evolving into a smaller SpaceX-like platform, with the Iridium deal adding a global satellite network, valuable L-band spectrum and millions of recurring subscribers.
The fundamentals still show strong top-line momentum, even if profitability remains distant. Revenue grew 63 percent in the latest quarter, while the order backlog rose 20 percent to USD2.2 billion. Over the past 12 months, sales increased 45.8 percent, well ahead of the S&P 500 median of 7.5 percent. But the operating margin was minus 33.2 percent, versus an index median of plus 18.4 percent.
Rocket Lab at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
That combination helps explain the market’s unease. Rocket Lab’s 14-day RSI stands at 29.6, a classic oversold reading, and 30-day volatility has climbed to almost 97 percent annualised. The shares are 12.51 percent below the 200-day average of EUR67.32 and 37.5 percent under the 50-day average, both of which now act as overhead resistance. The next earnings update is expected in August.
For now, the company sits between real execution progress and a market that is demanding much more proof before paying up. The planned five Neutron flights and the Iridium acquisition could strengthen Rocket Lab’s position in launch and communications. But if the Neutron schedule slips or a launch falters, investors may decide that the premium is too rich for the risk.
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Rocket Lab Stock: New Analysis - 17 July
Fresh Rocket Lab information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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