Samsung's Record Profit Paradox: Wall Street Wavers as $55.9 Billion Quarter Nears
Published on 07/06/2026 at 02:52 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
For all the euphoria surrounding Samsung Electronics' coming earnings bonanza, the stock has spent the past week moving in the opposite direction. Shares closed Friday at 309,500 won, down 4.18% over seven sessions and off 5.93% in the past month. That leaves the equity 17.36% below its 52-week peak of 374,500 won, hit on June 19, even as analysts forecast an operating profit that could dwarf both Apple and Nvidia.
The sharp disconnect between fundamental strength and price action reflects a market still digesting one of the most violent weeks in Seoul's recent history. Early July saw a brutal chain reaction that dragged Samsung and SK Hynix deep into the red after weak US semiconductor indicators triggered a global selloff. South Korea's Kospi index lost nearly 8% in a single session. Regulators quickly traced the amplifier to heavily leveraged single-stock ETFs, whose forced liquidations turned a normal pullback into a near-crash. The rebound was equally ferocious: Samsung shares surged more than 8% within the next two trading days.
Two catalysts fueled that snapback. First, reports emerged that AI startup Anthropic is in talks with Samsung about custom hardware, adding a fresh narrative around the company's chip-making ambitions beyond memory. Second, relentless pricing momentum in the memory market continued to bolster the operating story. DRAM and NAND flash contract prices jumped 40% to 65% quarter over quarter, and Samsung is already demanding another 20% increase for third-quarter DRAM deals — a move consumer-electronics makers are resisting, though tight supply strengthens the Korean giant's hand.
The magnitude of the earnings recovery is staggering. The market consensus for Samsung's preliminary second-quarter operating profit, due July 7, stands at roughly 85 trillion won ($55.9 billion). That would be an 18-fold surge from the year-ago quarter. Meritz Securities sees room to go even higher, forecasting up to 99.3 trillion won if Samsung strips out bonus provisions. At 85 trillion won, Samsung would surpass Nvidia's recent quarterly record of $53.5 billion and Apple's $50.85 billion, ranking second globally in profitability behind only Saudi Aramco.
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That kind of cash generation has caught the attention of South Korea's government, which is planning a state "future fund" financed by the windfall tax revenues from the chip industry. Combined operating profits for Samsung and SK Hynix are expected to exceed 600 trillion won ($430 billion) in 2026. The fund will target investments in AI, manufacturing technology, and housing, following reports that the two companies plan to spend roughly 800 trillion won on a new semiconductor cluster in the Honam region.
For Samsung specifically, the structural shift goes beyond quarterly spikes. Long-term contracts now account for 30% to 40% of its memory deals, providing stability in a notoriously volatile market. DRAM production capacity sits at 650,000 to 700,000 wafers per month, roughly double that of Micron. Meanwhile, the company is squeezing suppliers for discounts even as it raises prices for customers, expanding margins from both ends — a dynamic analysts now describe as a true memory supercycle.
Yet the stock's technical picture tells a more cautious story. At 309,500 won, Samsung trades 4.44% above its 50-day moving average of 296,350 won and well above the 200-day average of 175,635 won. The 14-day relative strength index reads 48.1, neutral territory, suggesting investors are holding fire ahead of the earnings release. On a 12-month basis, the stock has still returned 407.36% — a stellar run — but the recent retreat from the June high signals that some players are taking money off the table before the July 7 reality check.
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The question now is whether the numbers can bridge the gap between record profits and a stock that has lost altitude. If Samsung confirms the consensus or beats it, the case that the memory supercycle still has room to run will be hard to dismiss. If margins disappoint, the capacity fears that triggered the early-July carnage could resurface instantly.
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