Sangdong Mine Goes Live as Almonty Navigates Record Tungsten Prices and Dilution Fears

The moment Almonty Industries has been building toward for years finally arrived on July 1, when the Sangdong mine in South Korea began producing saleable tungsten concentrate for the first time. Yet the milestone, coming amid record prices for the strategic metal, has failed to reignite a rally in the company’s shares, which remain in a corrective phase after hitting an April high of C$33.35.

The disconnect between operational progress and market perception is striking. At C$22.16 — down 5.2% in a single session — the stock still trades 33.6% below that 52-week peak. Over the past 30 days it has shed 14.7%, even as the 12-month gain stands at an eye-popping 239.9%. The technical picture reinforces the caution: the share price sits 12.2% below its 50-day moving average of C$25.25, though it remains well above the 200-day average of C$18.76. The 14-day RSI of 43.7 points to neither oversold nor overbought conditions, while annualized 30-day volatility of roughly 98% underscores the market’s lingering nervousness.

A Supply Squeeze With Western Security Implications

The fundamental catalyst is hard to ignore. Tungsten concentrate now trades above $3,100 per metric ton unit, a record high, driven largely by China’s tightening grip on supply. Since January 2026, Beijing has imposed stricter export controls on dual-use goods including tungsten, and China controls approximately 80% of global production. The Western response has been swift: the U.S. launched “Project Vault,” a $12-billion program backed by the Export-Import Bank to build strategic reserves of critical minerals. Almonty, which recently moved its headquarters to Dillon, Montana, has positioned itself directly in Washington’s supply-chain sights.

At Sangdong, the company is now processing stockpiled ore — roughly 139,700 tonnes in total, including 19,700 tonnes of freshly mined material grading 0.35% tungsten trioxide (WO?). The average grade across the entire stockpile is about 0.25% WO?, giving the inventory a gross value of around $68 million at current prices. That buffer covers roughly 2.6 months of Phase I processing, buying time while the mine ramps up throughput.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?

The transition from construction to revenue generation is already visible in the numbers. In the first quarter of 2026, Almonty reported revenue of $25.4 million, a 221% jump from the $7.9 million in the same period a year earlier. Analysts say the focus must now shift from project promises to tangible cash flow.

Capital Raise and Index Entry Stir Mixed Signals

Just days before the Sangdong milestone, Almonty secured a heavily oversubscribed convertible note worth C$800 million (approximately $700 million U.S.) due in 2031 and carrying a coupon of 2.25%. The conversion price is set at $27.40, offering a clear premium to the current share price. Institutional appetite for the debt was strong, but the specter of future dilution has weighed on sentiment — particularly as the stock remains well below that conversion level.

Counterbalancing that concern was Almonty’s inclusion in the Russell 1000® and Russell 3000® indices on June 29. Index membership opens the door to passive inflows from institutional funds, providing a new source of demand for the equity.

Almonty at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

Analyst Optimism Tempered by Market Reality

Two U.S. banks have responded to the operational progress by raising their price targets. On July 10, DA Davidson lifted its target to $33 U.S. from $25, keeping a “Buy” rating, citing progress at Sangdong, potential U.S. government involvement, a solid balance sheet, and record tungsten prices. Oppenheimer followed shortly after with a target of $25 U.S. (up from $22) and an “Outperform” rating, pointing to sustained strong demand from the semiconductor and defense sectors for tungsten and ammonium paratungstate (APT).

Despite these upgrades, the stock’s near-term trajectory appears tied to two variables: how quickly Sangdong can produce reliable cash flow, and whether the convertible note’s overhang fades as the mine proves itself. With operating margins and return on equity still negative, the company has yet to demonstrate it can convert its strategic positioning into bottom-line profitability. The next quarterly report will be closely watched for evidence that the transition from builder to producer is finally paying off.

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