SAP Navigates EU Probe Resolution and AI Deals While IBM Shock Tests Support Ahead of Earnings
Published on 07/16/2026 at 21:02 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The past week has been an especially volatile period for SAP, with the German software giant navigating a punishing selloff triggered by a rival’s earnings miss, a much-needed regulatory win in Brussels, and the closure of a key artificial intelligence acquisition — all just days before its own half-year results are due.
Shares of SAP slumped as much as 5.6 percent on July 15 after IBM reported quarterly revenue of $17.2 billion, falling well short of the $17.86 billion analysts had expected. The read?across was brutal: investors worried that corporate IT budgets could tilt away from software licences and toward hardware for artificial intelligence workloads, a rotation that would directly threaten SAP’s cloud expansion. The stock touched €130.80 in late June, its 52?week low, and even after a partial bounce that lifted the price to €139.98, SAP remains 3.38 percent below its 50?day moving average of €144.88. Year?to?date the shares have lost roughly 31 percent of their value.
Yet the selloff may prove to be a short?term scare. Bernstein reaffirmed its “Buy” rating on July 16 with a price target of €276.00, arguing that the long?term potential of SAP’s cloud? and AI?driven strategy remains intact despite the current sector jitters. The analyst’s confidence stands in contrast to a more cautious pack: UBS’s Michael Briest cut his target from €205.00 to €164.00 on July 13, though he kept a “Buy” call and pointed to the complexity of ERP systems as both a moat and a barrier to monetising AI features. JPMorgan Chase & Co. held steady with a neutral stance and a €175.00 target. The wide spread — from €164 to €276 — underscores how uncertain the market is about the pace at which SAP’s AI investments will translate into hard numbers.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
Behind the noise, SAP has quietly cleaned up two significant distractions. The European Commission accepted the company’s commitment to stop charging reactivation fees for returning on?premise maintenance customers and to ease third?party support, closing a cartel probe that had been open since September 2025 without any fine. The settlement gives SAP legal certainty in a business still generating substantial cash flows. At the same time, the company issued a security alert for a critical vulnerability in its NetWeaver AS ABAP — tracked as CVE?2026?44747 with a CVSS score of 9.9, nearly the maximum — urging customers to deactivate certain ICF nodes or apply patches immediately.
On the strategic front, SAP closed its acquisition of Dremio, a data?lakehouse platform provider, in early July, following an April announcement of its intention to buy Reltio Inc., a master?data?management specialist. Both deals are meant to accelerate data integration for AI applications and underpin the “Autonomous Enterprise” vision centred on the Joule assistant. Whether these building blocks can quiet the sceptics will be a key topic at the post?earnings analyst conference scheduled for July 23 at 11:00 p.m. MESZ, immediately after the release of second?quarter and first?half figures.
Supporting the shares from behind the scenes, a sizeable buyback programme is nearing the end of its first tranche. SAP plans to repurchase up to €2.6 billion worth of stock by July 27 as part of a €10 billion multi?year plan. While the programme has not been enough to reverse the broader downtrend, it provides a mechanical floor that could become more visible once the earnings uncertainty lifts.
The market expects SAP to report second?quarter adjusted earnings per share of €1.76 on revenue of €9.85 billion. In the first quarter, the company delivered currency?adjusted cloud revenue growth of 27 percent to roughly €6.0 billion, with EPS of €1.66. Sustaining that pace — especially after the IBM?induced rotation fears — will be the defining test for a stock that has been caught between a strong strategic narrative and the cold arithmetic of sector rotation.
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